Big 3 Sports

NBA Preview 2007-8

2007-10-23T20:36:00.000+02:00

Back for season 3 of the preview. Admittedly I have thought a lot more about it this year, which probably means that this version will be my worst. I've done alright the last two years though.
Last year's big successes: picked the Cavs-Spurs final and the Spurs champions
Last year's failures: missed the Jazz and Raptor trains entirely. I missed big on the Warriors and Pacers too, but had I known about the midseason trade of Done-leavy to Indiana I might have predicted failure there as well.
Now on to 07-08...

Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics - KG, the Truth and RayRay in Boston sounds like better days for Beantown. Aside from SG, SF, PF they are thin as ice but, kind of like the Sox, if they get to the playoffs healthy that 3-man rotation is about as good as it gets in this division. And while none have recent playoff experience, each has put on an incredible playoff show or two in their careers, so expect them to step up when it matters again.
New Jersey Nets - Speaking of big 3, this version just hasn't been able to get healthy and play together and their joyride nearly reached an end last season at the trade deadline. With the return of Kristic, a healthy RJ and a warmer body in the middle in Magloire, this team could be in the top half of the East and give teams fits come playoff time.
New York Knicks - Not one, but two big bears down low this time around. I expect that ZBo and Curry will actually be able to work together this year and with Lee changing the pace off the bench they should be tough because they're strong exactly where the Nets, Celts and Bulls are weak. They may have problems with the pace of Western teams, but in the East they can creep to 40 wins with that front line... you also have to like the addition by subtraction of Stevie Franchise, if only someone would rid them of Marbury.
Philadelphia 76ers - Let's face it, the only time you will hear about this team is on SportsCenter... AI2 and Thaddeus Young will be all over the airwaves. I suspect someone will be in need of a PG and offer them a deal they can't refuse for Andre Miller's services and they'll prolong the rebuilding another year or two.
Toronto Raptors - Surprise! A very solid season North of the Border may lead to high expectations in a division where every NBA team (ie, not the Sixers) got much better. They were young last year though and should be able to battle back to the playoffs, but the burden of expectations can be tough.
Central Division
Chicago Bulls - Basically the same team as last year will trot out for the Bulls this year (PJ Brown = J.Smith + Noah). So why does everyone expect a championship this time out? Sure Deng has developed, but there are some stronger SFs in the East (Bron, Pierce, Jefferson) that will outshine him come playoff time. If the Kobe for Deng, Gordon, Noah and Thomas trade actually happens, I can't imagine how a Heinrich, Kobe, Nocioni, J.Smith, Wallace starting five is so much better than the team they already have, plus they destroy their depth.
Cleveland Cavaliers - Ok, so we've established that they've got no momentum this year. But they still have a solid 4 with Z, Gooden, Bron and Hughes. And should we be getting all that worked up about a guy who reminds me of Scot Pollard? Could the Cavs be interested in Howard or Webber? If LeBron plays anything like he did with team USA this summer and if the Pistons mental block is finally gone, Cleveland will be right there again in June.
Detroit Pistons - No news is good news for Detroit, but I think they underestimate how much Webber in the post helped their offense and I suspect they'll eventually ask him to be their Roger Clemens. Book their rooms for the second round of the playoffs again and pencil them in as losers in the Eastern finals for the third year in a row.
Indiana Pacers - Watch for falling squads. Their reaction to an absolute collapse last spring... Kareem Rush. Are you kidding me? Jermaine O'Neal will be this year's X-factor, like KG or Pau would have been last year. Larry should learn from his old pals in Minnesota and Boston, you have to pick a direction at some point.
Milwaukee Bucks - The Bucks have spent a fortune on keeping a fringe playoff team together for the foreseeable future... not the direction I'd go as a GM, but hey. They are still pretty young and add Yi and Bobby Simmons making them among the deepest teams in the East. They should challenge for a second round playoff spot once the Nets and Heat prove to be too old, ie not this year.
Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks - It's finally time. If the Hawks stay healthy and can ride the J.Smoothe-J.Johnson tandem for 82 games, the birds might see some airtime in May... June, not so much, but May's not out of the question. Horford and Acie will help, but it's the development of the Williamses that will get this team over the hump.
Charlotte Bobcats - Just when I thought this team could scrap into the playoffs they lose all of their depth. I expected Morrison would become a decent player this year without the overrated rookie bullseye... maybe next year he'll have completely left the radar and blow up. I really liked the J.Rich deal because he's still young and unlike A.M., you are certain he can score in the NBA. Without May and A.M. I don't think they're deep enough to get to the playoffs, but they're certainly not an embarrassment.
Miami Heat - Can someone explain to me what this franchise is doing? They have arguably the league's best player, the remains of its former best player, two packs of cigarettes and a cherry coke. Accepting the charity of the TWolves gives them a legit scorer and a useful center for all the games Shaq and Zo will miss, but it doesn't (AT ALL) make this team competitive against Cleveland, Boston, Chicago or Detroit. Could it be that the Heat want to combine Ricky Bucket's expiring contract with J.Will's to make a big splash? With a focused Shaq and Wade they'll win a series in the playoffs as a 6-7 seed, but then they'll be exposed.
Orlando Magic - I love Dwight Howard, all 12.5 feet of hops and extension and I think that Rashard Lewis will get some consideration for the All-Star game with all the buckets he's going to score, but I don't think this team is ready to join the best in the East just yet and could be leapfrogged by the Bucks and Hawks.
Washington Wizards - Kind of the forgotten team this year in the East. Compare Gil-Caron-Jamison to Kidd-Carter-Jefferson and tell me who comes out ahead... almost a stalemate in my book. However, Gil's not entirely healthy and is expected to leave DC next summer and Jamison is this season's best expiring contract. A sluggish start could start a sale on Hibachis in DC in February, however a hot start could have them salvaging the future to make sure Arenas knows they mean business.

Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks - Can't forget the Mavs this year. Sure, they have their kryptonite in Oakland, but by my count this team was 67-9 against everyone else after the 0-4 start. If they can avoid Nellie this team could be #1 seed in the West again. However, in the West, it's all about the playoffs and are you better than Phoenix, SA, Houston, Utah and/or Denver. I just don't think the Mavs are better than each of those teams in a 7-game series, so I suspect a second-round loss.
Houston Rockets - For all of their offseason efforts, this team is still an injury to McGrady or Yao from mediocrity in this conference. With all their cogs, including Bonzi, Scola and the other additions, this team will be a battle every night and especially in a 7-game series. How good were they last year? They should have beaten Utah in the first round and the Jazz only lost to the Spurs. With Rick Adelman (the most underrated coach there is) the sensitive egos will be managed and the team will a nightmare playoff matchup.
Memphis Grizzlies - Last year was a hiccup in the Pau Gasol playoff machine. I think with him healthy and not asking for trades they make it back into the mix this year. Plus, if Darko shows have the aggression he wanted to show those refs' daughters and mothers he's got to improve and take some of the defensive and board burden off of Pau.
New Orleans Hornets - This team rolled the dice on Peja two years ago and I'm afraid will suffer from that risk again this season. They have some nice pieces, but they're far from the 6 elite teams in this conference, meaning that they'll be in a battle with the Lakers and Griz for the final spots again this year.
San Antonio Spurs - Repeat champions? Not so fast, how about third in Southwest division. They have shown a tendency to back off after winning championships and don't have a Michael Finley first timer to play for this time around. I expect them to battle to the end, but to finally lose out to the Suns or Rockets if they run into them in the playoffs.

Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets - The jury's still out on how good the AI-Melo duo can be, but this team has a lot of other things going for it if Martin, Nene and Camby can ever stay healthy together. Injuries and general lack of interest for 82 games will probably cost them the Northwest, but matchup nightmares are all over the floor and only the Suns and Spurs can stop them in a 7-game playoff matchup. AI has a player option next year that he should commit to as soon as possible to avoid any distractions.
Minnesota Timberwolves - I don't usually comment on NBDL teams, but I'll make an exception for this team because they actually have some pieces and should continue to make some deals and/or tax writeoffs with Howard (already gone), Jaric and Walker before they poison the young bucks. If they can stroll out a starting 5 of Foye, McCants, Brewer, Jefferson and some center they get early in the next two lotteries, they'll be pretty good in 2010.
Portland Trail Blazers - The ghost of Sam Bowie has raised it's head again in Rip City, but this time around the injured player is 18 years old, having a surgery that seems to be getting better and better, has an actual will to win and sense of responsibility to the franchise. Aldridge will have to be a Bosh-type for them to win 25 games this year, but on the bright side the expectations on the team are gone and they will have two outstanding rookies next season. OJ Mayo anyone?
Seattle SuperSonics - I love what Seattle has done with the place. If only my Kings are so fortunate when they finally throw out the trash. Durant fell into their laps and avoiding the age gap presented by RayRay was a nice move. Green should be a Grant Hill type SF who can do it all. They also have a guy in Thomas who can guard Duncan on an expiring deal that could prove very valuable to teams with Finals aspirations. Figure that they get a late first rounder for that to go with a lottery pick in 08 and they'll have a very solid foundation when they move the rodeo to OK.
Utah Jazz - Big time miss here last year. However, now I'm smarter and apparently Carlos Boozer is worth all the ink he got when he left the Cavs hanging a few years ago. This team is right there at the top, but somewhat less threatening to the Spurs. If the Jazz can get AK47 on the same page and get him back to the 15-8-4-2-3 monster (he was only 8(!)-5(!)-3-1-2 last year) he used to be they should outpace the Nuggets in the Northwest.

Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors - They had a nice run, then they traded away J.Rich, essentially throwing in the towel on this go-around. I think Mullin realizes that this group, while entertaining in a pole-dance kind of way, is not marriage material. Baron can, and probably will, walk this summer and land in LaLa land if he's not already playing there in February. Once he's gone you're left with the Pacers East - Steven Jackson, Harrington and Croshere - and a couple nice pieces in Ellis and Biedrins, but this is the Western Conference ladies and gentlemen. They'd have been better off without last year's ray of hope and a chance to get Kevin Durant into that system...
Los Angeles Clippers - Elton Brand's injury cripples this aging team. Cat and Sam just can't hold the fort while the franchise waits for the recovery of Brand and Livingston. Worse for the Clippers is that Maggette and Brand both have player options next summer and are probably quite willing to jump off this ship.
Los Angeles Lakers - Anyone else tired of Kobe Bryant? Two years ago it was the rape charge all summer, this year it's the trade demands. Kobe saw Snow LeBron take his 11 dwarfs to the finals in the East and realizes he's two pieces from any glory in the West. If the team stays in tact expect Kobe to get them over the threshold, but to get dumped in the first round by superior teams. Rumors abound that the Lakers and Bulls could make a splash in the next couple days getting Gordon, Deng, Noah and Thomas in return. I think the Lakers would still be a fringe playoff team if that happens.
Phoenix Suns - Grant Hill is the original LeBron. A SF with great ball handling and passing skills that can create for himself and everyone else while bringing a positive attitude and leadership. He's not as athletic anymore, but look what Diaw did a couple years ago as the Nash ball handling alternative and you can see that Hill can be the difference maker for the Suns. Where the Suns get over the hump this year is an edge on urgency. Nash and Hill are both hungry, whether or not Marion wishes he was scoring 30 for the T-Wolves.
Sacramento Kings - Um... what do I say? Bibby's out for 6-10 weeks, Hawes is hurt, Artest is suspended for 7 to open the season. Look for 1-6 to start to the year and a fire sale on Bibby and Artest by December. Interesting side note... the Heat love Artest and Ricky Buckets has a comparable expiring contract.

Predictions
MVP - Let's face it, this is not a one-year award. Think of it as a college football poll. With that in mind, the preseason favorite is LeBron based on his explosion in last year's playoffs. Nash is #2 because he should have won it last year and everyone realized that when Dirk collapsed in Oakland. Duncan is probably #3 for the body-of-work award and a need to reward him for 3 in 5 years. Garnett has to be next because if he posts 18-13-5 in Beantown and they win the Atlantic they'll be building skinny statues of him all over the city. Others... how about Melo if the Nuggets crack the elite in the West, Yao if he carries the Rockets or Kidd for challenging the Celtics in the revived Atlantic.
Rookie of the Year - Durant will see little competition, but the experts will spend the season trying to find alternatives. How about Al Thorton in LA for all the chances he'll get without Brand or the UF threesome?
Comeback player - Kenyon Martin could have some appeal if he gets back to form. Otherwise, Wally World could see more shots in Seattle, Walker will score in bunches if he sticks in Minny and AK47 could get notice if the Jazz make it the Big 4 in the West.
Most improved - Gotta believe that LaMarcus Aldridge is almost a lock for this award. Other alternatives could be Marvin Williams in Atlanta, NateRob in New York and Rashard McCants in Minny.

Playoffs
East: For the first time in a long time good teams will miss the playoffs in the East... Bulls, Celtics, Pistons, Cavs, Nets, Wizards, Heat, Hawks/Bucks in that order... which means that the Magic and the Raptors don't quite get there unless the Wizards choose to blow it up.
West: Mavs, Suns, Spurs, Jazz, Nuggets, Rockets, Grizzlies/Lakers/Hornets
NBA Finals - LeBron can't muscle the Cavs back to the Eastern finals, mostly because Mike Brown just gets outcoached, which leaves the door open for the Celtics to knock off the Pistons for their third straight loss in the Eastern conference finals. The Spurs get knocked off in the second round, leading the way for the Suns and Nuggets to play in the most entertaining Western conference finals of all time.
In the end, the Suns finally get to the finals and are able to exploit the weaknesses of the Celtics the way the Eastern teams couldn't in an NBA finals David Stern can take to the bank...

NBA Lottery

2007-05-26T00:17:00.000+02:00

Congrats Sonics... you just won the opportunity to have the same team next year!! Durant can't me that much different that Rashard Lewis, though the contract is much less expensive and they might be able to get something for Lewis in a sign-and-trade (maybe the desperate/depressed Celtics wouldn't mind having a guy who looks and plays like Durant for one of their young big guys and Telfair or something)...

Otherwise, the Blazers can now field a round-mound who can score and rebound and a long athlete that can get up and down and defend the paint in the way ZBo couldn't... the three-man rotation with Aldridge now make the Blazer front line pretty tough all of the sudden... However, the Blazers need to get serious about filling up the wings with studs not named Jarrett Jack.

***
My point is that unless the Sonics get something for Lewis they don't make the playoffs again next year... these two guys went to bad teams in the West... if they had gone to bad teams in the East they might have a chance to change the balance of power (just look at the players on the Cleveland team!)... now they're in the hunt for the 6-8 playoff spot in the West with the Lakeshow, Clips, Warriors and Nuggets...so we'll have to hold off on the saviour label for a while.

Is it possible that the Blazers trade Zbo to Seattle for Lewis? It would make sense for both teams... come to think of it, so would trading the picks. What chance is there that the Blazers draft Durant with the first pick instead of Oden? What would the Sonics give the Blazers to make that happen?

***

I saw Durant about 10 times this year and I believe that he will be a better player than Rashard Lewis (a former all-star), but here's the point... is Allen-Durant better than Kobe-Odom, Iverson-Anthony, Yao-McGrady? Not next season and all those pairs were 1 and done in the West... KG, Elton Brand, Chris Paul, Mike Bibby and Pau Gasol all watched the playoffs from home in the West. If Durant couldn't get a mediocre college team to the sweet 16 as an 18-year old, why should he be able to carry a mediocre NBA franchise to the playoffs a year later?

The truth about the Sonics...
Ray Allen is 32 and we all know how that feels... he's been on one playoff team since 2001
Lewis averaged 22-7-2 last year and shot 46%, 39% from 3 against NBA competition
Durant averaged 26-11-1 and shot 47%, 40% from 3 against college competition and will be a 19-year old in the NBA, only LeBron and Melo have averaged 20 PPG as 19 year olds and LeBron missed the playoffs that year, Melo got the 8th seed.
Hungry Chris Wilcox got fed and pulled only 14-8 last year
No one else averaged 10 points, no one averaged 1 block, and no other player on their roster should be a starter in the NBA.

Today, I would be willing to bet $100 that the Sonics don't make the playoffs next year... Lewis is the biggest free agent in the West, next are Travis Outlaw, Luke Walton or Jerrry Stackhouse... so the West essentially stands pat this year or grabs a Billups, Vince Carter or Gerald Wallace from the East. Given that, the Spurs, Suns, Mavs and Jazz can book their arenas for nest year's playoffs, the Rockets too if they stay healthy, that leaves the Lakers, Nuggets, Warriors, Clippers, Hornets, Blazers (+Oden) and Sonics (+Durant)...not to mention two teams from last year's playoffs, the Kings and Grizzlies... and KG and his Wolves.

Does 19-year old Durant get the Sonics from 31 wins to the playoffs at the expense of Kobe, AI/Melo and does it push them ahead of teams like the Hornets, Warriors or Blazers for the final spot? Methinks not. Does matching a 32-year old with a 19-year old sound like a recipe for long-term success? Not really.

Oden v Durant

2007-02-27T21:50:00.000+01:00

Starting to get this feeling that Greg Oden is not going to be as much of a superstar in the NBA as everyone expects. I remember watching Patrick Ewing at Georgetown (Oden's most common comparison) when I was really young and he simply demanded that he dominated the game. In a 1 vs 2 game there's no way Ewing doesn't command the post... Oden didn't really do that. He struggled a bit last night and I have watched Durant from Texas play some and he seems to be able to dominate and step up his game in a way that Oden can't. Now, mind you, Oden's team is #1 in the nation in large part due to his play, but he disappeared at times against Wisconsin.

Regardless, it's going to be a tough call for whoever gets the first pick. Dynasties are generally built on big players... unless you get Michael Jordan, Larry Bird or the Bad Boy Pistons (80s and 2000s versions). Kareem was the core for the Lakers (and the Bucks before that), Walton the man for the Blazers in the late 70s, Ewing's Knicks were legit contenders for 7-8 years during the Jordan era and would likely have won one or two if they could have gotten by the Bulls, Hakeem won when Jordan played baseball, the Spurs were elite with Robinson and have been dominant for 10 years with Duncan and of course Shaq has been the man for the Lakers and Heat.

Sure there are other factors there... Magic was Kareem's equal in LA, Shaq had Kobe and Wade, but if you look at a list of great players that never won a title, you run accross a ton of PFs: Barkley (lost to Jordan once), Malone (lost to Jordan twice), Elgin Baylor, Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, Chris Webber... Baylor, Garnett and a few other not to win a title - George Gervin, Dominique Wilkins - could be compared to Durant in terms of skill set.

If I'm drafting I want to be sure that Oden has the potential to be Hakeem or Ewing and won't end up being Samuel Dalembert (another extremely athletic center). The fact that Oden is shooting over 65% from the line using his off hand is something that really impresses me too.

If we look at the teams currently in the lottery (with a pick), there are differing needs. If we consider that if a team gets the first, they could bargain like heck to trade down a spot so that a team was guaranteed Oden, if Durant fits a team, there could be some action between the 1 and 2 picks.

Memphis would love to pair Pau with either Oden or Durant... thanks to Oden's athleticism and Pau's rebounding, both these guys make sense for the Grizzlies.

Philadelphia already has Dalembert, but I am going out on a limb to think that they won't be deterred from Oden because of that. In terms of fit, I would have to say that they need Durant more than they need Oden.

Boston could really use either player, but I think Durant fits better given all the young bigs they already have. Drafting Oden gives them all sorts of trade bait though.

Phoenix is loaded and if they get the #1 I think Atlanta will have a collective heart attack and Joe Johnson will be shot. But if they do, Greg Oden would give them a front line of Oden, Amare and Marion... they'd dominate. The alternative of Amare, Durant, Marion looks nice too, but I think Amare would rather be a 4 than a 5.

Charlotte has Okafor and expects to lose Wallace, they probably opt for Durant.

Seattle has drafted centers every year and are still looking for a center. Losing Rashard Lewis makes them desperate for a replacement and they take Durant.

Sacramento is desperate for either player, but given Miller's age, Oden's the easy pick.

Portland is also a fairly easy Oden pick... Joel Pryzbilla, c'mon.

New Orleans has Chandler and David West in the middle and probably would be better off with Durant than Oden, especially if Peja out long term.

Milwaukee has Bogut which makes them pretty flexible. I think they would take Oden and go with the triple towers (Villanueva's also a pretty big dude!).

Chicago (from New York)... Isaiah's dead if Chicago gets the number one. They really wanted Gasol, to me that means they value Oden's post scoring more than Durant's wing play.

Miami... how unfair would it be if DeWayne Wade has Shaq and Oden on the same team and gets to share his career with those guys? They need Durant more than Oden, but the chance to let Oden learn from the Jedi Master would be tough to pass up.

Golden State, they could finally get it right at center if they drafted Oden, Harrington is too much like Durant.

Clippers, one year after getting praised for opening the wallet for Chris Kaman, he sucks. So, I think they would try to build a powerful front line with Oden and Brand, though Durant would be a serious improvement over Tim Thomas, though in his prime they are similar players.

NFL combine

2007-02-27T16:48:00.000+01:00

I tuned in to a few minutes from the WR/QB/RB combine on NFL network yesterday and saw Calvin Johson borrow a dude's shoes and blow off a 4.35 at 6'5 239 lbs... holy shit. Another thing that impressed me, Brady Quinn benched 225 24 times while Jamarcus Russell didn't do anything (except stand around at 6'5 265 lbs), saying he'd been on the award circuit. I think the Raiders should consider the work ethic before making that No.1 pick. I'm not a Quinn fan, but I'd rather have a guy who's hungry than a guy who's busy counting his money.

By the way, I'm giving real thought to naming my first born JamesOn, like the kid from Ok State... Is it legal to just throw in caps like that?

Bill Walker tears his ACL at Kansas State

2007-01-19T12:16:00.001+01:00

Chad Ford’s article about Kansas State’s Bill Walker’s torn ACL allows me to bring up a point. David Stern cost this kid millions of dollars... period. If Walker had been allowed to turn pro like so many before him, he would most likely have busted his ACL while under a guaranteed contract as a late first-round pick. Worst case he's a second round pick and still gets a couple hundred thousand for his efforts. Why Stern and so many other force players to go to college for one year is beyond me. When players go to college for the required one year, here's the drill: get passing grades in Phys Ed heavy classes during semester 1, make sure to maintain eligibility until the tourney and then drop out to train for the draft in June. Education? Please. Guys who want an education will choose school and will stay in school without the requirements of the NBA... see: Tim Duncan. Other guys will be sure to catch up during the summer... see: Vince Carter and Shaq. One semester of grades does not elevate these players to scholars once their playing days are over. Those that don't make it after one year of college will be in a similar position as guys who have left HS only to fall out of the draft or get pushed out of the league.

The NBDL offers a sort of minor league system and while not on the level of MLB's minors, so there is money to be made for basketball players that don't make the NBA. There is also money and opportunity in Europe and Asia. Why does David Stern and the NBA feel the need to be the moral authority on this issue? Baseball players from all over the world start playing ball at 18, gymnasts drop out of school for the Olympics, why can't basketball players earn their money while their bodies are strong enough to do so? If Oden or Durant have a career-ending injury this year, what are they supposed to do? Get that college education and spend 25 years earning 40k a year in order to get their millions? Both of those guys are simply filling the coffers of fat cats and making geniuses out of coaches at Ohio State and Texas this year while missing out on their own huge endorsement deals and NBA riches. I feel for Bill Walker, I wonder if David Stern does.

What next for C.Webb?

2007-01-12T17:14:00.000+01:00

Chris Webber wasn’t happy earning his $20 million a year in Philly? What? Wasn’t there enough soul food in Philly? By the way, I love when guys get $40 million for nothing, then make demands about earning $5 million to finish up the rest of the season to “make up for lost income”.

While a lot of people tend to see Webber as washed up, he has managed to put up decent numbers this season despite a bad shooting year. For example, check this comparison of 2006-7 statistics for two former first overall draft picks:

Webber 30.2 Min, 11.0 Pts, 8.3 Reb, 3.4 Ast, 1.8 TO, 1.0 Stl, 0.8 Blk

Andrew Bogut 32.1 Min, 11.9 Pts, 8.6 Reb, 3.1 Ast, 2.4 TO, 0.8 Stl, 0.4 Blk

A deeper look shows that Webber has gotten his points on 4 more FG attempts and 1.5 fewer FT attempts and that in that sense Bogut has been more efficient, but it is fairly obvious that Webber’s not washed up when you consider the praise poured on Bogut. The question remains whether Webber is willing to take a lesser role for a championship or if he’s looking for a place to play 30 minutes a night. Despite averaging over 19 shots a game, I actually think that C.Webb would be willing to take a lot fewer shots if he’s able to drop 7-8 dimes a night, so (assuming that all the reports are true) will he do that in Detroit?

Maybe situation in Detroit is perfect for Webber. Aside from Rip Hamilton each player is good enough and team-oriented enough to get by without the spotlight or a ton of attempts. Rip gets 17 FGA, Billups 12, Tayshon 13 and Rasheed 11. Outside of the core, there aren’t many shots taken.

For example, look at the Pistons frontcourt players:

Rasheed Wallace 34 Min, 11.0 FGA, 12.1 Pts, 8.5 Pts, 1.6 Ast, 1.3 TO, 0.7 Stl, 1.8 Blk

Antonio McDyess 21 Min, 5.6 FGA, 5.2 Pts, 5.7 Rebs, 0.9 Ast, 0.9 TO, 0.5 Stl, 0.5 Blk

Nazr Mohammed 20 Min, 5.5 FGA, 7.5 Pts, 5.6 Rebs, 0.2 Ast, 1.0 TO, 0.8 Stl, 1.1 Blk

Jason Maxiell 15 Min, 4.8 FGA, 6.6 Pts, 2.8 Rebs, 0.3 Ast, 0.8 TO, 0.5 Stl, 0.8 Blk

Dale Davis 11 Min, 1.9 FGA, 1.9 Pts, 3.0 Rebs, 0.3 Ast, 0.3 TO, 0.2 Stl, 0.9 Blk

Rasheed is included, but the rest of the discussion will focus on the four guys Webber will be replacing. These numbers tell me a few things. 1) There isn’t a dominant player that Webber will be taking minutes from, which makes it easier for Webber to fit in, especially if McDyess or Davis gets moved. 2) These guys don’t get the ball unless they grab it off the glass (1.7/3.0 Assist-TO ratio and 1.7 assists in 67 minutes per game). So how does Webber compare to these guys? Summing up the other four and adjusting to 30.2 minutes of the four-headed monster gives a combined line to compare to Webber’s 2006-7 output:

Webber 30.2 Min, 12.8 FGA, FG 38.7%, 11.0 Pts, 8.3 Reb, 3.4 Ast, 1.8 TO, 1.0 Stl, 0.8 Blk

4-headed Piston 30.2 Min, 8.1 FGA, FG 48.9%, 9.7 Pts, 7.8 Reb, 0.8 Ast, 1.4 TO, 0.9 Stl, 1.6 Blk

It seems that a few things are going to change with Webber in Detroit. First, for Webber to be happy a few guys are going to have to give up a shot or two a game, most likely this can be managed by removing the ball even further from the other four and guys like Flip Murray without significantly affecting the core. Second, the ball is going to go through Webber more often than these other guys, which is a perfect scenario for Detroit because they have guys who can stick the J as all four of the core hit over 34% from 3 and they shoot 36% from 3 as a team.

How does this affect the core? Given Rasheed’s ability to accept his role and to affect the game regardless, he will benefit from having a partner in the high post as well as a guy who will find him when Rasheed’s man sags to the middle to help on Webber and cut off the back door cuts of Prince and Rip. Rip benefits by getting the ball where he wants it from a guy not named Chauncy. Chauncy benefits by getting an extra open look because he won’t be the only guy who can handle the ball in the half court. Tayshon will continue to get his scraps and may even have a play run for him and his 44% 3-point shot.

With Webber in the lineup I’d expect significant improvement in spacing, passing and opportunities for everyone else. That alone should be enough to put the Pistons over the hump in the East, making Webber’s choice to come home look even better.

Those two buckets

2007-01-10T12:42:00.001+01:00

Well, a few weeks ago I said the Kings could right this ship and get themselves back into the race thanks to their soft January schedule. Since then they’ve been 3-4 with a few crushing losses. Two of those losses in particular, OT losses to the Lakers and Portland came complete with last second shots (thanks Smush and Roy) that cost the Kings the win in regulation. Add that to a 17-point, second-half lead blown to Cleveland last night and the Kings are in a rut. They have 12 games left in January against a weak schedule, but 9 of those games are on the road (including two 4-game road trips). In other words, this hasn’t worked out like I’d hoped. Convert the OT losses to wins by taking back those two buckets and you’ve got a completely different story, but those losses could mean the difference between the playoffs and the lottery or between blowing up the team or not.

The silver lining is in the two superstars – Mike Bibby and Ron Artest. In 4 games in January, Bibby is shooting over 51% from the field, 50% from 3 and scoring 28 points a game. Artest, in 4 games, has shot over 53%, 35% from 3, and dropped 22.5 points per contest. Each has averaged over 40 minutes ( two OT games certainly help that ) and it seems that they are in the process of turning around tough starts. At the same time, Kevin Martin has continued his ridiculous season, scoring 20 on over 50% from the field. In the front court, Brad Miller, Kenny Thomas and Shareef Abdur-Rahim have all played serviceable ball, though with 70 PPG coming from the backcourt, they haven’t been scoring too much. Even John Salmons has contributed in 30 minutes a game… so what’s happening?

As I said before, two late buckets have really changed the perception for this team. Without them the Kings have a 4-game win streak and a little momentum heading into last night’s game to Cleveland and that confidence probably doesn’t cough up a 17-point lead. The media would be writing about the success of the two bickering stars, the great play of the back court and the Kings would again be darlings. But apparently this isn’t the season for that in Sacramento. Each success is trampled by two failures.

What about Pete Rose?

2007-01-10T12:14:00.001+01:00

I grew up loving Pete Rose. He was pretty much untouchable as my biggest childhood hero until I sat down to watch some guy drop 63 points in the Garden against Larry and the Celtics in 1986 (I was 11). The man was ridiculous with a 32 oz baseball bat and besides that, before his betting problems dragged him down, he was a very good manager (aside from playing himself a little too much at first base late in his career). I’m not going to waste time with an ode to Pete and why he is unquestionably a hall of famer and without the gambling issue would have had among the highest vote totals of anyone on a first-year ballot. What I am going to say is that one of my other favorite players – Mark McGwire (I grew up in Sacramento and loved anything in green and gold) – has officially ruined it for Rose.

For the last 20 years every December/January belonged to Pete Rose. Every year there were countless articles on why or why not and in every article he was commended as among the greatest players of all time. This outcast role made him a superhero in a way that a first-ballot HOF vote never could. Robin Yount and George Brett were first-ballot guys, when was the last time someone mentioned them this time of year? Pete Rose has become infinitely more famous without the Hall as his story has been regurgitated to each new generation of baseball fans. Ask your 8-year old who Tony Perez is and see the confusion, but ask him who Pete Rose is and he’ll reel of a Wikipedia article.

Now the steroid era has come to Cooperstown (a wonderful town by the way, with or without the Hall). All the articles, in cyberspace or in magazines, have been devoted to Mark McGwire, the same player who retired from baseball being considered among the top 5 first basemen of all time. Since then he has done nothing wrong, nor has he even been officially accused of any wrong doing. Sure he doesn’t want to talk about the past and has lived in hiding, but why? He played by the rules of baseball at the time he was in the league. He may have taken steroids, but who knows for sure who hasn’t. I’ve become increasingly more skeptical of longevity as a steroid/HGH indicator because of the possibility for faster recovery, etc. There have been a lot of guys, pitchers in particular, who’ve been playing this game at a very high level for a very long time. How does the argument go when Roger Clemens (who’s name’s come up in rumors), Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and others come to the ballot?

There are no sure HOFers on the 2008 ballot. The new names are Shawon Dunston, Travis Fryman, David Justice, Mike Morgan, Tim Raines and Randy Velarde of which only Raines has a snowball’s chance in hell. That usually means one of the guys on the waiting list finally gets his call, a la Bruce Sutter, and it looks like that person might be Goose Gossage and Jim Rice may slide in. In 2009, Rickey Henderson shows up. But hopefully before the next wave of “sure HOFers” get to the door we have some clarity on how to deal with steroids, or at least more information on who did and didn’t if that is going to be a basis for HOF evaluation given that it wasn’t against the rules.

My point is simple. Pete’s 20 years in the spotlight are done. He might as well be reinstated, slide in the back door to Cooperstown and be forgotten forever. Now your 2-year old will probably never hear of Pete Rose, but will know plenty about Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro and Sammy Sosa. By the way, if those guys are going to be shut out, I hope that list gets longer and other users don’t slide in because they didn’t hit 500 HRs.

Don't trade Artest!

2006-12-28T08:09:00.000+01:00

Whoa… trade Ron Artest? Maybe the Kings should relax a little bit. The rumors are a straight-up swap Artest to LA for Corey Maggette, who has essentially an identical contract to Artest. Apparently Mike Bibby and RonRon can't make nice and given the 11-14 record the Maloofs are considering ending the Ron Artest Era within 1 year.

With Artest's potential to lose it and reduce his trade value, one could see this as a completion of the Peja trade and think parlaying Peja into a player like Maggette is a good thing, especially since Peja just had back surgery and Kevin Martin has turned out to be a fresher, higher-flying version of Peja 3:16 of yesteryear. However, I tend to think that Artest is a gifted player and that he completely changes the defensive face of a team. If someone's leaving I think it should be the other star.

Mike vs Ron

If we look a little into the numbers, it just doesn't make sense to give up on Ron just yet. I know I just ranted about getting AI for Bibby and that the Kings have nothing to play for so mixing it up is a good thing, but Bibby and Ron are very different types of players and I wouldn't have said that if it was AI for Artest.

I am fully aware that Bibby carried the Kings one step from the Promised Land a few years back with his clutch shooting. He was the backbone for what has been proven to be an otherwise backbone-less partnership with CWebb and Peja. However, when they inked that long-term deal I was pretty sure they would eventually regret it. At the time Bobby Jackson was the back up and was an energy boost whenever he hit the floor. I thought the Kings should sit on their wallets and not give Bibby the max because BoJax could easily carry 30 minutes a night and they could fill the other spot with a cheaper alternative… but that's a completely other discussion.

Sticking to Artest v Bibby, there are a few things that make Artest a much more valuable player in the longer term. First, Artest's under contract next year, Bibby can opt out after this season. Second, Artest is a year and a half younger than Bibby (to the day actually). Third, despite his shooting woes, Artest has listened to his critics and coach and is averaging over 2 more rebounds than his career average this season. Given his defense and steals (2.4), 7.2 boards a game should give him a strong argument for defensive player of the year. And finally, Artest's shooting has been bad, but not really that far off his career FG% of .415. Point being that if he's so valuable at .415, why is he of so little value at .389, especially getting to line and converting an extra time per game and grabbing a pair of extra boards. Bibby on the other hand is shooting nearly .100 points below his career average in both FGs and 3FGs and, despite almost 2 extra FTs a game, he is otherwise giving you what he's always given you in terms of rebounds, assists and lackadaisical defense.

Think about the schedule

Another anecdote – if Bibby and Ron can just get along – is that the Kings have faced a hellish schedule in December. They were 8-5 in November and were the talk of the league, then they started December by losing five straight to San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, Orlando and Miami (hey, they're still the champs and the loss was in OT). They've also lost to Golden State (.500) and Washington (.556), but their other losses were to Phoenix and Dallas again and they beat Utah and Denver (AI's debut) on the road so they've beaten some good teams. Yeah, but they need to beat the best teams right? Well, we're talking about the four of the five best teams in the league (nod to the Pistons, not the Jazz) and the reigning champions. The Kings on their best days are not among the four best teams in the league. In summary, the 3-9 December looks worse than it is when you consider that the Kings have played two teams with less than a .500 record and one of those teams won the championship last year.

We'll see how my theory holds up when the Kings face Philly, the Clippers, Golden State to wrap up December and spend January with the Pistons, Cavs, Mavs and the damaged Lakers and Rockets as the only teams above .500 on their 16-game January schedule.

So Maloof brothers, I stress patience, and if you're gonna do a deal, here's some help.

Bibby trade options (if my idea doesn't work)

By the time they hit a back-to-back with the Sonics February 10-11 the Kings should have a pretty good idea of what type of team they have and be prepared to ship Bibby to a point-guard hungry team before the deadline for a young player/draft pick and an expiring contract. Possible destinations might be Cleveland, Indiana or Miami if they believe they can make a run at the Eastern Conference with a little help at PG. Looking into the rosters, it seems that only James Posey of the Heat has an expiring contract of any reasonable size, so I'd expect a third team not in the race but with some expiring deals (Portland-Jamal Magloire, Seattle-Danny Fortson, Memphis-Eddie Jones, Bucks-Ruben Patterson) to get involved if Bibby's $12.5 million are going anywhere.

Using ESPN's trade machine I worked out a Bibby to Indiana deal via Memphis. While a deal could be done Bibby for Eddie Jones straight up, if Memphis is just brokering, they could parlay Jones into Stephen Jackson and Jamal Tinsley with Indiana. My favorite deal would be Bibby and John Salmons(' shitty contract) to Indiana, Eddie Jones, Sarunas Jasikevicious and potentially a draft pick (I love this guy!) to the Kings and Stephen Jackson and Jamal Tinsley to Memphis (the deal also works without Salmons and Saras, but the Kings will need a PG in return). This deal would free the Kings of almost $20 million in cap space in 2007-8 (not to mention the $10 million that comes off anyway). It also gives them a poor man's Bibby in Saras who is simply the best European point guard out there and needs a place to play. Memphis obviously takes a risk with Jackson (attitude) and Tinsley (every bone in his body), but that team should have learned while it was without Pau that it needs scoring in the worst way. Indiana would improve the attitude in the locker room, get some future cap flexibility, erase the competition between Tinsley and Saras and get a clutch PG for a playoff run in the East. Memphis would probably ask someone to fix the Stromile Swift situation and Sacramento could toss in Corliss or Indiana could chip in rebounding machine Jeff Foster, a nice fit next to Pau, to accommodate that request though neither team really needs Swift.

Christmas in Denver?

2006-12-22T19:25:00.000+01:00

So the Nuggets got AI. Not a good day for Kings and T-Wolves fans, but the Nuggets have to be pretty happy, but I'm afraid the happiness may be short-lived. The Nuggets still play in the Western Conference and there are three monsters in the closet - Mavs, Spurs, Suns - two of which are waiting for their own turn at glory and the other is so used to glory that they won't let go without a fight. So what happens with AI? Who's left out when AI takes his share? Let's see...

For the first 10-15 games, AI will get his as Smith and Melo serve suspensions, but what about the rest of the season. The Nuggets average 109 points a game through 23 games... that's a lot of points. Now, subtract Andre Miller's 36 minutes, 10 shots, 13 points, 9 assists and 3 TOs and try to replace them with a guy that's gone a career with 42 minutes, 23 shots, 28 points, 6 assists and 4 TOs. You realize quickly that something has to give for "career average" AI to fit into the hole AM is leaving. (Fitting "2006-7" AI will prove even more difficult.)

Where to get 6 minutes... the guess is that this is the easy part. Earl Boykins loses most of the minutes as he was getting 24 already. I could also see Earl losing minutes to better compliments to AI, but we'll ignore that for now.

How about 13 shots, not to mention 6 extra free throws (3 more shot attempts)? There's an interesting twist when it comes to shots because one might assume that AI's ready to be humble and give up his shots. However, given that he will carry the load for 10-15 games before the team's rightful leader returns, he might forget to be humble by late January after averaging 35 points a night in the higher-paced Western Conference and leading the league in scoring. Trying to dissect the shots a bit further, Boykins loses again as he usually guns when he's in the game (10 shots in 23 minutes), figure he loses 3. After that there are only Melo, JR and Camby with 10 or more shots and I don't think Camby or Nene loses any shots because they'll pick up for the loss of Joe Smith (14 minutes, 4 shots). That means that 13 shots need to be taken away from the combination of JR (12 shots today), Melo (24), everyone else (except JR, Melo, Camby, Nene, lil' Earl and the departed AM and Joe Smith) (17) or a reduction for AI. My guess is it's 4 for JR, 3 for Melo, 3 for Boykins, 3 for the scrubs and 3 for AI. That generally means each guy will average as many fewer points.

What about the 3 lost assists, my guess is AI will carry that load or one or two will simply disappear as AI takes his guy off the dribble more than AM. 6 assists is his career average, but he's had between 7 and 8 the last three years.

So how is this team better with AI than AM? Well, if we assume AI averages 25 (12 more than AM, but AI's lowest since his 2nd season) and 8, Melo's reduced to 29 (-3), JR drops to 13 (-4), Boykins to 9 (-3) and the rest drop 3 more points, the Nuggets average 108 points, or one fewer. This is due to AM's higher efficiency scoring (47%). Add in AI's extra turnover per game and it could be worse.

Another factor has to do with swagger. Sure the team gets some swagger with AI, but Melo's just lost his scoring title to Kobe and JR's gone from a formidable second scorer at 17 points and climbing to a run-of-the-mill 13-point three-point specialist. Even AI's lost some mojo if he's only averaging 25.

One solution is for George Karl to turn it up a notch. Get an extra 3-5 shots a game to split with his stars. This might happen naturally as AI likes to gamble and may give up a few quick ones on the other end. The other is to shorten the bench and essentially end the season for guys like DerMarr Johnson (8 min, 3 shots) and Yakhouba Diawara (20 min, 5 shots) or to trade Boykins (24 min, 10 shots) for less of a gunner because he's essentially useless if he can't be paired with AI for 42 minutes.

The final question is how good is a team with Camby, Nene, Melo, JR and AI in a playoff series? Dirk and Marion seem to be mismatches, but Melo and AI would also be tough for Dallas or Phoenix to hold. Denver could play small ball with Boykins, Diawara or Johnson against the Suns, but the Suns would probably outmatch them. San Antonio plays good D, but either Anthony or Iverson should see a few extra seconds of daylight from what they would have otherwise, and they should be able to capitalize on that.

The prediction? The Nuggets are 14-9 today and would have to feel lucky to play 7-8 without Melo and JR Smith. That leaves them 21-17 when we finally get to see the team as one unit. If we assume this is January 22 they have a few powder puffs before the All-Star Game and will cause a stir by winning 10 of their first 13 as a full squad. Now at 31-20 they probably continue at a .600 pace for the rest of the year and end at 49-50 wins. That would be 5 better than last season and the same as two years ago when they had that huge run once George Karl arrived. Given the long suspensions, that's an outstanding record actually. The franchise hasn't seen 50 wins since 1988, so the city should be buzzing. Given the dominance in the West this year, 50 wins should put them at the sixth seed (ie, right where they are today) where they'll likely face one of the big 3 already in the first round... welcome to the Western Conference Allen. If they beat any of those teams it would have to be considered a major upset, but to Denver it will feel like a major disappointment after giving up both first-round draft picks to lose in the first round of the playoffs.

So Nugget fans, enjoy the show until early May!

AI

2006-12-13T23:11:00.000+01:00

Do this deal please... The Kings are tumbling and really have nothing to lose by sending Bibby, Douby and Kenny Thomas to Philly for AI. While they're at it, send back John Salmons and his shitty contract. My guess is the Sixers want an expiring contract, so maybe Corliss gets in there somehow. The issue being that Bibby can opt out at year end and that would leave Philly with nothing for AI. So, if AI and Ron Ron are going to be the anti-thesis of Divac and Peja in Sactown, Bibby's going to have to give up that option. Given the floating wood in the Atlantic the Sixers can still squeeze into the playoff picture with a few back-to-backs and Bibby and Webber were a decent, albeit slow and trodding, duo.

I think AI would be a nice fit in Sac because no one else really demands the ball. Martin will score quietly, Ron can bang it in the post for a few buckets when he's not loving his 3 ball and Reef and Miller have never been too vocal about getting the rock. Don't think it gets the Kings to the playoffs by default, but they aren't going now anyway and the Maloofs have already made a successful bold move for Artest and realize that AI will mean a ton of pictures of their front-row sitting mugs on national TV and jersey sales if nothing else. The problems in the locker room? Media babble. AI's been a productive player in the league for 11 years and realizes better than most that the NBA is a business and you don't always have to have BBQs with your coworkers.

I haven't heard another deal that is better for Philly than getting Bibby and some cap flexibility. The T-wolves have nothing but shit on their roster and I can't see the purpose of loading up on mediocrity by making a trade for Theo Ratliff and a few pups from Boston. Maybe the Knicks will trade for AI and Webber just to load up on contracts.

Any chance David Stern throws the Kings a bone in an AI deal by letting the Kings move into the Eastern conference?

*****

The Cubs have spent the GDP of Ghana and the Congo on players this offseason. For some reason this isn't bothering me like it would if the Yankees were doing it. Go Cubbies!

*****

Man Detroit sucks, can't the Lions just beat someone so that I'll know that the Raiders have the #1 next year? Note to Big Al... Trade the pick! Get a ton of picks in exchange for "the Brady Quinn pick" and DON'T use them on a safety this year.

*****

Adam Morrison has made 1 FG in each of his last four games. I didn't realize that NBA players could be as streaky as he has been this year. This is the equivalent of an 0-33 slump in baseball or something. I mean, it's not like the guy's raking down 10 boards a night or shelling out 5 dimes... the guy is paid to knock down J's and he is ICE COLD. The only thing making Morrison look good right now is JJ Redick.

What??

2006-11-13T15:16:00.000+01:00

Hutch... you jinxed the Longhorns...the worst part about that loss is that they were essentially guaranteed the BCS championship with a win because they'd seen the Auburn and Louisville lose. Now with their QB hurt, they might have some trouble in a Big 12 championship... their backup had a sort of deer in headlights thing going.

*****

With Texas, Auburn, Louisville and Cal losing, is there anyone who can argue that the championship game shouldn't be a repeat of next weekend's Ohio State-Michigan game? The only real alternatives are Arkansas, Florida, USC, Notre Dame or Rutgers. Arkansas lost to USC, Florida to Auburn, USC to Oregon State and Notre Dame to Michigan... Not to mention that Arkansas and Florida seem destined for an SEC final and USC plays ND.

Rutgers still needs some validation and plays West Virginia. It's tough to think that Rutgers can be national championship quality, but they just beat a team that was good enough to be ranked #3 and if they beat WV, WV was at one point ranked #4... Josh, how does a #6 BCS rating feel? Oh, and why I hate the BCS... Louisville beats WV, then loses to Rutgers, now Louisville is #10 and WV #8... USA Today has WV ahead of Rutgers too!!

Given that there is a winner in the OSU-Mich, USC-ND, Ark-FLA games there could be 4 teams that could claim they deserve the right to play in the BCS championship if Rutgers beats WV.

****

Speaking of Arkansas, Darren McFadden for 2007 Heisman!! This guy is simply filthy. Arkansas must have the best RB tandem in the nation with its two sophomores McFadden (who took a bunch of direct snaps in a shotgun-option formation) and Felix Jones... Rutgers can keep their RBs, I'll take McFadden's explosion anyday. Given that they were 8-1 when they started a freshman QB for 9 weeks and benched him for a sophomore this week, you can go ahead and pencil the Razorbacks in for the BCS title game next year if they don't make it this year.

Silver (& Black) Lining?

2006-11-07T16:57:00.000+01:00

1. Silver lining: Andrew Walter didn't throw a pick and the fumble he had was recovered by a Raider! He also threw to 7 different receivers. Black lining: If you take away the final drive Walter was 12-30 for 122 yards and 9 sacks for minus 45 yards... this is simply pitiful.
2. Silver lining: The Raiders had zero turnovers. Black lining: Of 13 drives in the game Lechler punted 10 times, two halves ended and one drive ended on TO on downs. The Raiders had two drives longer than 22 yards or 5 plays.
3. Silver lining: Warren Sapp and Derrick Burgess each had a sack, Moss had 6 catches, Lamont Jordan averaged 7 yards a carry. Black lining: Moss had three catches on the final drive and Jordan only had 9 carries.

The Raiders host Denver next weekend. I realize this is a short week, but can we simply fire each coach that has anything to do with the offense and cut Brooks, Walter and Tuiasasopo and do something else? As a team the Raiders have a QB rating of 47.4 and have been sacked 44 times in 8 games.

The Logic 25

2006-11-06T18:18:00.000+01:00

It’s obvious the BCS is flawed, so I’ve gone to the liberty of compiling my own list of college football’s best and call it the "logic 25".

It’s a, well, logical approach, which generally works pretty well... head-to-head wins take precedent, if you beat good teams you get credit, if you lose to good teams you don’t necessarily lose credit, and I don’t care what the results of the other games were, home or away, or how close the wins are… wins are wins. With that in mind I’ve compiled 31 teams that deserve some notice… it’s the BCS 25 plus Clemson, Washington State, Penn State, Hawaii, BYU and Nebraska. From these teams I’ve developed a top 25 that does its best to factor in head-to-head wins against other top 25 teams, ie Arkansas beat Auburn, thus should be better than Auburn, Auburn beat Florida, etc. However, this is impossible when Arkansas loses to USC who loses to Oregon State who loses to 3 other top 25 teams and there is also the issue of the undefeated teams and the teams that have lost to the same team… in these cases, I admit, the BCS ratings get some weight.

To do this I’ve built some groups and then tried to merge the groups together.

Group 1: the undefeateds
Group 2: one loss to the undefeateds (Texas, Notre Dame, West VA and Wisconsin) and Penn State (losses only in group 1 & 2)
Group 3: The SECs, USC, Cal (loss to Tennessee), Nebraska & Hawaii
Group 4: The ACC and BYU
Group 5: The Oregons, Washington State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma

Group 1: Michigan, Ohio State, Louisville, Boise State and Rutgers. Michigan deserves to be ranked higher than Ohio State having 2 wins (Notre Dame and Wisconsin) against my top 25 where Ohio State and Louisville only have one (Texas and West Virginia, respectively), but thank God OSU and Michigan will settle this on the field. Boise State has beaten Oregon State and Hawaii so they take a step ahead of Rutgers.Rutgers is last here because they haven’t beaten anyone of note yet and I expect they lose to Louisville on Thursday.

Group 2: Notre Dame, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Penn State. The choice of Michigan at #1 influences Notre Dame over Texas, plus Notre Dame gets a little extra credit for beating GA Tech and Penn State against Texas' wins over OU and Nebraska. While each of the first three has beaten a top 25, the fact remains that the Badgers and Penn State haven’t beaten anyone. Who’s to say Penn State isn’t the 16th best team in the nation though? They’ve lost to Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame and #15 Wisconsin!

Group 3: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, USC, LSU, Tennessee, Cal, Hawaii, Nebraska. The first tricky group thanks to USC’s loss to Oregon State. USC gets credit for beating 2 top 25s though and is placed ahead of LSU and Tennessee which have only beaten one top 25. This one is otherwise based on head to heads. Arkansas beat Auburn, Auburn beat Florida, Auburn and Florida beat LSU, LSU beat Tennessee and Tennessee beat Cal. Cal has 3 wins against top 25 teams, but they’re all in the Pac-10 and the loss to Tennessee shows me how tough the SEC is. Hawaii’s tossed in here for losing to Alabama (and Boise State) thus making them generally inferior to the rest of the SEC and Nebraska lost to USC (plus two others) so they pick up the rear.

Group 4: Wake Forest, GA Tech, Boston College, Maryland, VA Tech, Clemson, BYU. Clemson really tosses in a wrench here. They beat Wake Forest and GA Tech, but lost to BC, Maryland and VA Tech. Boston College adds the first loss to a team not in my top 31 – NC State – but they’ve beaten VA Tech, Clemson and BYU so they get a slight nod over Maryland.

Group 5: Washington State, Oregon State, Oregon, Oklahoma, Texas A&M. Tough to stick to Washington State with 4 losses, but how much do you punish for losses to Auburn, USC and Cal? Besides, they beat both Oregons so they get the nod. Oregon State beat USC, so Oregon State gets the nod over Oregon despite the extra loss to Boise State. We all know the Oregon-Oklahoma story, which really hurts OU in this ranking system. Finally, OU beat A&M.

Combining the groups : The groups remained fairly in tact. Group 1 is spread out more than others because one wonders how good is a Rutgers team who hasn’t won or lost to anyone? Boise State’s knocked off Oregon State so they could be anywhere in the top 25 really. In the end I figure these teams are middle of the pack and straddle Wisconsin and their one loss to Michigan. Group 2 is tight at the top, but Penn State hasn’t beaten anyone so they fall out of the top 25 with their 4 losses. Group 3 is the next batch, except Nebraska and Hawaii that get moved out of the top 25. Following the BS, Wisconsin and Rutgers heap comes Group 4, sans BYU, and Group 5, sans A&M.´

Thus, my logic 25 looks like this:

1. Michgan(BCS: 2)
2. Ohio State (1)
3. Louisville (3)
4. Notre Dame (5)
5. Texas (9)
6. West Virginia (10)
7. Arkansas (11)
8. Auburn (6)
9. Florida (4)
10. USC (7)
11. LSU (12)
12. Tennessee (16)
13. California (8)
14. Boise State (14)
15. Wisconsin (15)
16. Rutgers (13)
17. Wake Forest (19)
18. Georgia Tech (18)
19. Boston College (22)
20. Maryland (23)
21. Virginia Tech (21)
22. Clemson (NR)
23. Washington State (NR)
24. Oregon State (24)
25. Oregon (20)

Others: Oklahoma (17), Penn State (NR), Texas A&M (25), Hawaii (NR), BYU (NR), Nebraska (NR)

NBA Preview 2006-7

2006-11-03T09:51:00.000+01:00

Last season's success made me cocky so I'll give it another try this year... that usually leads to disaster, but who's paying attention anyway?

Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics - You have a solid PG, give up the #7 pick for Telfair and draft Rondo in the 20s? This feels like one of those teams that has decent players at every position, but only Pierce (29 and 19!! in the opener) stands out. Could the combination of West, Telfair or Rondo, Perkins or Jefferson and Wally or Green get AI in Beantown?
New Jersey Nets - Note to self: TiVo anytime the Nets play the Suns... Vinsanity and Jefferson will be swinging from the rafters, but without a solid inside presence they have simply no chance in the playoffs. Regular season their top-shelf, in the playoffs their boxed wine.
New York Knicks - The Yankee thing hasn't worked in Madison Square Garden, but give him this Isaiah has depth. How bad is a lineup with Francis and Marbury penetrating and kicking to Q (31 & 9 in the opener) and Frye with T-eddy Bear Curry in the paint? In the Atlantic they might compete. With names like Jeffries, Crawford and Lee coming off the bench, I think Isaiah keeps his job this year. If he doesn't the Bulls get their pick again so they might have to boost their 07-08 payroll... oh wait.
Philadelphia 76ers - Recipe for doom: add two fragile aging superstars following career years where they played 70+ games, make no moves, hope to improve on 35 wins. I think AI ends up in Boston when the 76ers have 15 wins at the AS break.
Toronto Raptors - I like the initiative. You're in a crappy division, make a move. But not THAT move! Big for small is usually not good, young, promising big for injury-risk small sounds worse. I'll give the Raps a do-over... trade down in the draft, get Marcus Williams and keep Charlie Villanueva and get a little something in return.

Central Division
Chicago Bulls - Ben Wallace gets to prove if he's a difference maker and while the 42-point drubbing of the former champs is positive, getting clobbered by Dwight Howard is less positive. The Bulls are right there, but are they even the fourth best team in this division? In the end Sefolosha will get more rookie of the year interest than Tyrus Thomas.
Cleveland Cavaliers - King James will improve (gulp), Larry Hughes is healthy and Donyell Marshall got the memo... he's a PF. With Bron-Bron's ability to win games in the fourth quarter the other guys just have to keep it close and this gang most certainly can. Eastern confernce finalists? Yeah, by default.
Detroit Pistons - Time for the Pistons to start their decent. The focus is on losing Big Ben, but the big problem will be the NBA crackdown on screaming at the refs. Call it losing 1 and a half Wallaces. Sure he could change, but we all know Rasheed won't bend for "the man". How far does a team that flirted with 70 wins fall in one year? To 3rd or 4th in the Central.
Indiana Pacers - Gave these guys the finals last year so I'm a bit gun shy. But this team got better for a couple reasons: Granger hasn't made his move, Saras will be much better, Harrington will rebound where Peja wouldn't and Marquis Daniels will play 30 minutes a night. O'Neal plays more 60-70 games and is healthy for the playoffs and the Pacers are the surprise in the East.
Milwaukee Bucks - Villanueva makes this team better and takes some of the load off Michael Redd. Patterson can lock down most wings. There's just something fishy about this team. All of their starters seem second tier, even Redd meaning their bench is a tier below that. One of the Central teams has to make room for the Magic and well, this team seems most likely.

Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks - Shelden Williams? Really? Looks and smells like Corliss Williamson to me. Couldn't trade down to say 10 or so just to add a draft pick to the argument of "we could have had so and so"? This team is in legal handcuffs off the court and plays like its in fuzzy porn handcuffs on it. Speedy Claxton is a nice pickup for a team that drafted Chris Paul or Deron Williams last year...oh, wait.
Charlotte Bobcats - Emeka's back... is still hurting. Don't get me wrong the ambition level is still not so high in Charlotte, but with the two PG set, Gerald Wallace flying all over the place (the Kings should have NEVER let this guy into the expansion draft) and big bodies up front they have something to work with. Jordan's phone must ring off the hook for teams interested in Brevin Knight, why not hand Felton the keys and get a young asset? Adam Morrisson? I don't know, I just don't. Has anyone compared him to Reggie Miller yet? He's certainly no Bird. If the Cats run him around like Reggie Miller we might have a Rip Hamilton type in a year or two.
Miami Heat - Last year they shook things up, this year they played bridge and bingo in the offseason. The only reason this team is back in the playoffs is Dewayne Wade. Shaq won't be interested until mid-March and GP and Zo may have lost their edge, so D-Wade will probably put up LeBron-ish numbers this year... 30-6-6.
Orlando Magic - Is there anything you are good enough at that if you only did it once in a while you'd still be one of the best? Grant Hill is that guy. When he's on the court he is still tremendous. I heard a lot about the Darko resurgence only to see him come off the bench and play half of Tony Battie's minutes in the opener against the Bulls. This team doesn't need Darko, this team needs a healthy Grant Hill and a steady helping of Hedo, Jameer and the super freak. Dwight Howard vs. Amare pre-knee injury... I'd take Dwight Howard. This team is a playoff team and if the Heat have it on cruise control, they could win this division.
Washington Wizards - Gil's got high altitude air in his house, that's going to have half the impact of the USA embarrassment this offseason...he's gonna go Gilarenas on the NBA. Wait, he did that last year didn't he... there is a limit to Gil's revenge. The rest of the team is no better than last year. A minimum signing of Stevenson (only 1/5 the price and 2/5 of the length of John Salmons' deal) otherwise this is exactly the same crew as last year. Expect the same result, 1 week of playoff exposure and out.

Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks - Andrea Bargnani owes Dirk half his paycheck (for that matter so does Darko and Skitta (it's ok Skita, Dirk takes Euroleague checks too)). Dirk and Nash should have shared the MVP (and perhaps a bowlo and a hacky-sack circle). But they should've won the championship, you know, while they were there and all. They now sit in the unenviable position of having to get back to the finals when it's not even likely they get out of the second round in the West. Tough opener against the Spurs is just a sign of things to come.
Houston Rockets - This team is simple... they are so reliant on Yao and McGrady that they could win or lose 60 games. Everyone's praised the Battier-Gay swap (teehee) but it'd be a bit better if they weren't planning to play him at the four! Bonzi will do his thing once he's healthy and regardless of his rep is one of the league's most flexible players... boards, points, defense... he's a poor man's Charles Barkley really. So, what happens... how about they get 45 wins and wreak havoc in the playoffs because a healthy McGrady can defend Duncan, Dirk or Marion... and carry 30-6-6... while Yao is getting very close to cracking the league's elite. West version of the Pacers.
Memphis Grizzlies - There's something about Pao... he looks ridiculous and runs like a girl, but man, he was the best player in the World Championships and carried a mediocre team to the 7th seed last year. Is Pao one of those guys you just roll out and automatically make the playoffs with? Without him there's way too much burden on Mike Miller, Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick but if those guys can get some confidence and hold the fort at about .400 until Pao is back they will be fighting to the end. Unlike Amare, once Pao's on the floor he's good to go, he's already slow, has no hops, etc, so there will be less of a recovery period. I still think they miss the playoffs because other teams got better.
OKC / New Orleans Hornets - Speaking of better. Peja 3:16 (my old favorite player) will be filling it up in the Bayou (or OKC) on feeds from Chris Paul. This team is going to scap for the final playoff spot in the West because they have guys like Chandler, West, Mason and Bobby Jackson who aren't afraid to play hard and can defer to the young superstar Paul has become. If they do make the playoffs look for Peja to revert to his part-time schedule.
San Antonio Spurs - Unlike the Pistons, this team's not nearly done. While Duncan is fully capable of carrying the load, Parker and Manu are willing and able to shoulder their fair share. Even so, Tim Duncan and his four oldest relatives could probably still win 20 games in the league. It'd be even more boring, if that's possible. Should be interesting to see what lineups they go with because aside from T.D. and Big Shot Rob, they're horribly thin up front. If they get anything from Nazr's replacements, they'll be holding the trophy in June... sorry David Stern.

Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets - They needed a gunner to help out Carmelo... JR Smith is nothing if he's not a gunner. They got Nene back, meaning that they can breathe a bit easier about trotting Camby and Martin out each night. If Melo takes the steps to be a leader for this team and pushes himself on the defensive end, the Nuggets will make the playoffs for more than just winning their division.
Minnesota Timberwolves - Coming back to my comment about Pao Gasol... why doesn't KG's team make the playoffs each year? There are any number of superstars throughout the years that have carried bad teams to the playoffs - Barkley, Nique, Jordan, David Robinson - why not KG? With that said, the T'wolves still suck and drafted a PG only to sign another PG to go with Marko Jaric, who's been horrible. This team can start booking late April in the Bahamas.
Portland Trail Blazers - Zebo and Roy, how much worse are they than Webber and AI, Yao and McGrady or Duncan and Parker? Oh, that much? Well, at least they'll be the kings of the Pacific Northwest...
Seattle SuperSonics - ... because this team is hopeless. Can someone please send Ray Allen a lifeline? Rashard Lewis is clearly gone and the trading deadline, all the hope surrounding Robert Swift went up in ACL smoke and Chris Wilcox seems a little less angry after getting $25 mill. Ray Ray is too good a player to be stuck on this sinker, or to have to be the OKC poster boy next year.
Utah Jazz - AK47, Carlos Boozer (24 & 19 in the opener!), Mehmet Okur and Deron Williams should be on a playoff team, Derek Fisher, Matt Harpring, Jason Collins and Rafael Araujo should not. They'll upset a few teams and stick around until April, but one injury to the front four sends this team into the Greg Oden sweepstakes.

Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors - Nellie's always been a mad scientist... unless Nellie has the cure for Baron Davis' back problems and Mike Dunleavey's Danny-Ferry-itis this team may be drafting another project center next year... but this time with NBA talent.
Los Angeles Clippers - Added two volatile pieces and lost Maggette for most of the year and poof... playoffs? Sam I Am may be the ugliest player in the league singe Gheorge Muresan and Terry Tyler, but the guy can flat out ball and make his teams better. What he's never been able to do is mentor young guys and Shaun Livingston could use some of that mojo. When can we take Elton Brand off the list of "good players on bad team" and add him to "league elite"? I say make it back to the second round this year and we'll talk.
Los Angeles Lakers - The Lakeshow... a King fan's favorite nemisis. 2-0 without Kobe? Now's the time to cut the ties! Not happening. Kobe will come back, average in the mid-30s and everyone else will stand by and watch one of the game's best players drag them into a battle for 7th or 8th place again.
Phoenix Suns - Three years ago people praised Mark Cuban for finally sitting on his wallet while the Suns overpaid an aging Steve Nash...cheap bastard! Can Amare come back? They won nearly 60 games without him last year and may get worse with him struggling to get it back. Chris Webber Washington/Sacramento never went back to being Chris Webber Michigan but changed his game to be a great player on weak knees. Can Amare do the same?
Sacramento Kings - The worst off season in Sacramento since the Kings picked up J.Will, Vlade and C.Webb in the same summer. John Salmons ends up getting paid more than Bonzi, who actually wanted to stay put. Then they draft a Bobby Jackson/Tony Delk type in Douby and pick up Loren Woods and Maurice Taylor. As much as this pains me to say it, the competition in the West is simply too good for this Kings team this year. The worst part about it is that once this team falls back to mid-90s win totals, they won't get free agents and the wheels will fall off. At that moment the Maloofs will move them to Palms Arena... the future home of the Las Vegas Blings.

Predictions
MVP - Nothing bold here as last year's crew will all be there again - LeBron, Nash, Brand, Wade and Dirk. The only new names will be the duo in Houston. I think if the Cavs win more games than last year LeBron will get his due for making his team better (even if it's simply a matter of his teammates playing better than last year). Dark horses... how about Grant Hill if he manages 70 games of 20-8-5 and the Magic get a 5 seed in the east. Ron Artest if the Kings get better than a 6 seed and Jermaine O'Neal if he plays 70 and the Pacers challenge for the Central Division.
Rookie of the Year - Roy by default, no one else will be given the keys like he will.
Comeback player - Grant Hill. Or how about Wally World?
Most improved - Sarunas Jasikovicious, Pacers. Saras has multiple European championships, can fill it up and can lead a team from the point. Another option is Hakim Warrick.

Best chance at Greg Oden - Charlotte, Warriors, Seattle and Portland. Watch out if Seattle gets it and decides to make a point NOT to draft another young center. The odd thing is that aside from the Cats, these other teams drafter centers this year... not good planning. If the Cats get Oden they can trot out Felton, Morrison, Wallace, Okafor and Oden just in time for the Pistons Nets, and Heat to implode.

Playoffs -
East: Cavs, Pacers, Heat, Nets, Bulls, Pistons, Magic, Wizards in that order
West: Spurs, Mavs, Suns, Nuggets, Clippers, Rockets, Lakers/Hornets/Kings (Geoff Petrie owes us one this year)

Finals - LeBron-Wade 1 ends with LeBron's supporting cast outhustling a sluggish Heat supporting cast. Spurs hold off the Mavs to return to the finals.

NBA finals - As much as it pains me to say this, one more ring for Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu and Bron Bron will have to wait his turn.

MyIntroToLetYouKnow

2006-11-03T06:25:00.000+01:00

Oh my, I’m a blogger! After dumping hordes of sports-related gibberish on a group of 15-20 guys from college each week, I finally decided to spare them and publish. To fill out the site I have posted a bunch of email text with sports-related emails I’ve sent over the last year or so.

So, who is this guy? I’m born 1975 in Northern California (Sactown!) and know copious amounts of useless information about baseball, football and basketball. Chose to latch onto the A’s, Raiders and Kings while managing to keep an eye on the other side of the Bay so that I could talk trash about my friends’ beloved 49ers and Giants. I've admittedly lost interest in the A's post-Bash Brothers (and apparently steroid coctails) and now follow a friend on the Cubs. I bleed silver and black (more like hemraging this year) and despite growing up with World B Free and Bernard King on the Warriors adopted the Kings when they moved into my neighborhood.

Who am I now? Well, I’m a capital planner for one of the 20 largest banks in Europe. That’s right, I live and breathe in Sweden these days, which has only lit the fire under my passion. My connection to US sports lives on these days thanks to ESPN insider, Dime Magazine and the world’s greatest invention… the Slingbox. If you’ve never heard of it, stick it into google and you’ll realize that I, in Sweden, have my own TiVo… in Georgia (thanks Dad).

Musings...20061031

2006-10-31T19:18:00.000+01:00

I turned on NBA TV and they were showing KG's first game... against the Kings...ahem, before the turnaround. Starting 5: Olden Polynice, Brian Grant, Walt Williams, Mitch Richmond and Bobby Hurley...waited to see who the first guy off the bench was, but Christian Laettner was pummeling us so I had to turn it off.
*****
I know, first game of the year, but damn.. if Andrew Bynum puts up 18, 9 and 5 assists each night the Lakeshow might have something.. oh, and he's born in 1987!! That's even 7 years after my wife!!

Oh and another thing... Kobe sucks.
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How 'bout them Raiders?? Gave up six sacks (had 5 completions, the second time this year they've pulled off the more sacks than completions trick) and managed only 98 yards of total offense... which would be 26 yards fewer than the total yards on their two ints for TD (100, 26)... and a 20-13 win! That's what I call Just Win Baby!!
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Big win for Romo and the Boys... you think Al Davis is trying to get Drew Bledsoe in the Silver & Black??
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I watched some of the Bears throtteling of the 49ers yesterday... Urlacher is filthy... then switched over to the Falcons-Bengals and Michael Vick was simply impressive... 140 rating, 3 tds and 300 yards, oh, and 55 yards rushing on 9 carries. I'd like to see the Falcons v Bears and watch Urlacher patrolling the middle against Vick...
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My big disappointment this weekend was that I fucked up when I set up to record the Mizzou-OU game... so I missed that, but from the highlights it didn't seem very close... Fish said the game was close, but from what I can see online Mizzou played well in the third quarter and shit the bed the other 3 quarters (Pick & fumble in the 1st, -11 yards offense in the 2nd and two picks in the 4th). And the only thing that happened when it was 16-10 was that OU took the ball 80 yards for a TD.

Last I checked turnovers, special teams and drops were part of the game (so is bad officiating OU fans)... Mizzou had zero running game aside from their QB (RBs: 7 carries 1 yard). The tipping point was actually when Mizzou was down 23-10 and had 1st and Goal at the 2 in the 3rd quarter with a chance for fourth quarter momentum... instead it was four x Chase for 1 yard... OU ball.
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I guess making $13 million a year (err, to play a game from February to October) can be a pain in the ass for some people. To think that I used to have Gary Sheffield's poster on my bedroom wall and still have about 20 rookie cards (my second (failed) investment). The cousin of Doc Gooden (my first failed investment) can clearly play but to gripe about getting $13 mill to stand in the Yankee outfield should make the average American, hell, the average lottery winner, pretty pissed off. Heard he could be traded... memo to the Cubs: No, no, please no.

Making Noise in Boise

2006-10-30T10:42:00.000+01:00

What about Rutgers and Boise State ranked 12 and 14 in the BCS!!? Considering that Michigan plays OSU, Louisville, Rutgers and West VA all play each other, USC plays Notre Dame and Cal, and Tennessee plays Arkansas (and both play a tough LSU team with losses to Florida and Auburn), Boise State could really move up the BCS ratings!! The only other teams that don't play a top 15 BCS team are Texas, Auburn and Florida but they could have tough conference championships... if Boise wins out against powerhouses like Fresno St, San Jose St, Utah and Nevada, they should move up the Harris and the USA Today polls by default and might end up in the top 8 for the BCS if the computers cooperate.

BCS Standings
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. West Virginia
4. Florida
5. Louisville
6. Auburn
7. Texas
8. USC
9. Notre Dame
10. California
11. Tennessee
12. Rutgers
13. Arkansas
14. Boise State

Musings...20061003

2006-10-03T02:36:00.000+02:00

This paragraph makes me wonder...

"For a team (the Raiders) whose offensive coordinator was running a bed and breakfast a year ago, it's only fitting that one of its starting offensive linemen majored in hotel administration at Cornell University."

1. The Raiders O coordinator was running a what last year? No wonder they have more sacks and penalties than completions.
2. Ivy League schools have "hotel administration" as a major? Kinda like taking only PE classes at Grinnell... oh, sorry Stu.

Other interesting news...

THE CARDS ARE CHOKING!! Get these guys a lifeline! The good news for the Cards is they've got a 4-game homestand against the Brew Crew to wrap up the season. The bad news is they have one more game against the Padres and they were 1-2 against Milwaukee last week. The 'Stros have 5 road games, two agianst the Pirates, three against the Braves...
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Anyone have an opinion on whether Ryan Howard's juicing? He's got 58 homers and if he's not juicing his numbers are more impressive than the 60s and 70s Bonds, Sosa and McGwire hammered out. On the downside, his 175 Ks are pretty impressive as well. He's a career .305 hitter with 280 hits... but has 288 Ks a .314 average.
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Is Pujols going to wear a black or grey suit at his Hall of Fame induction? He's settled in nicely at .330, .650, 45 and 130... ridiculous. Contrary to Howard he's only whiffed 49 times this year. After 6 seasons in the bigs he'll have 250 HRs... not sure what the record is but, ARod had 148, Bonds 142 and McGwire and Griffey 172, Aaron 179, DiMaggio 198, Mays 187, Sosa 95...the Babe 49 (he was a pitcher)... Pujols is ridiculous.
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I watched the Rutgers-South Florida game (TiVo'd and Slinged it)... Rutgers hasn't been ranked since 1976, gonna have to give credit to the announcers, but the announcers lost quick cred by calling Rutgers RBs and TE the "best in the nation" within the first 1:30 of the game... gonna have to work on those ESPN2 guys.
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It is apparent that the QB from Iowa suffers from the contagious disease of Hawkeye vision. Apparently he wasn't able to see anyone on the field other than his beloved Hawkeyes, even when there were 4 Buckeyes within 5 yards of his "open" Hawkeye". It's a common disease, affected about 20% of the Grinnell campus.
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Is Mizzou looking for a pat on the back after a 28-13 win over an 0-5 team? You won't get one for 2.5 vs. 5.1 yards per carry, 0 vs 2 turnovers and a 14-yard drive after a muffed punt at the end of the first half... You've got to do better than that at home against a team with 9 straight losses.

Apparently AP thought it was more impressive than Rutgers 2 point win against South Florida and granted them a leap frog to 23... congrats Tigers. Texas Tech's in the top 25 now too, so we'll see how tough they are this weekend.

Is 28-13 against Colorado better than 27-24 against A&M, 22-20 against South Florida, or a 21 point loss to the #1 team in the nation ... who knows, but it certainly doesn't sound impressive... especially when compared to #18 Clemson's 51-0 against a 1-2 LA Tech team, #20 Cal's 41-13 against a 2-1 Oregon State team or #12 Notre Dame's 35-21 against 4-0 Purdue. That's why the BCS applies complex (and flawed) math to this shit...

If Mizzou beats Texas Tech and A&M and you've got an argument, right now we're just speculating.
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The season still has a lot of football... just saw the Wake Forest is also 5-0 with a big time high school schedule that ends with top 25's in 4 of the next 6 weeks. Boise State's 5-0 too and doesn't have a ranked team on the schedule. Rutgers hasn't beat anyone and won't have to until Louisville and West Virginia come around in November. The other unbeatens will face each other at some point so we'll see.
*****
Is it inappropriate to call him T.O.D. now?

Commitment 2 Futility

2006-09-12T02:48:00.000+02:00

Aaron Brooks... 6 completions, 7 sacks... and having watched the game only a small amount of blame can go to the oline... some goes to the o. coordinator for insisting on 7-step drops and not simply getting the ball into the hands of his receivers... I am pretty sure OSU or Texas would fuck the Raiders up right now.