Big 3 Sports

Chad Ford’s article about Kansas State’s Bill Walker’s torn ACL allows me to bring up a point.  David Stern cost this kid millions of dollars... period.  If Walker had been allowed to turn pro like so many before him, he would most likely have busted his ACL while under a guaranteed contract as a late first-round pick.  Worst case he's a second round pick and still gets a couple hundred thousand for his efforts.  Why Stern and so many other force players to go to college for one year is beyond me.  When players go to college for the required one year, here's the drill: get passing grades in Phys Ed heavy classes during semester 1, make sure to maintain eligibility until the tourney and then drop out to train for the draft in June.  Education?  Please.  Guys who want an education will choose school and will stay in school without the requirements of the NBA... see: Tim Duncan.  Other guys will be sure to catch up during the summer... see: Vince Carter and Shaq.  One semester of grades does not elevate these players to scholars once their playing days are over.  Those that don't make it after one year of college will be in a similar position as guys who have left HS only to fall out of the draft or get pushed out of the league.

The NBDL offers a sort of minor league system and while not on the level of MLB's minors, so there is money to be made for basketball players that don't make the NBA.  There is also money and opportunity in Europe and Asia.  Why does David Stern and the NBA feel the need to be the moral authority on this issue?  Baseball players from all over the world start playing ball at 18, gymnasts drop out of school for the Olympics, why can't basketball players earn their money while their bodies are strong enough to do so?  If Oden or Durant have a career-ending injury this year, what are they supposed to do?  Get that college education and spend 25 years earning 40k a year in order to get their millions?  Both of those guys are simply filling the coffers of fat cats and making geniuses out of coaches at Ohio State and Texas this year while missing out on their own huge endorsement deals and NBA riches. I feel for Bill Walker, I wonder if David Stern does.

Chris Webber wasn’t happy earning his $20 million a year in Philly?  What? Wasn’t there enough soul food in Philly?  By the way, I love when guys get $40 million for nothing, then make demands about earning $5 million to finish up the rest of the season to “make up for lost income”.

While a lot of people tend to see Webber as washed up, he has managed to put up decent numbers this season despite a bad shooting year.  For example, check this comparison of 2006-7 statistics for two former first overall draft picks:

Webber             30.2 Min, 11.0 Pts, 8.3 Reb, 3.4 Ast, 1.8 TO, 1.0 Stl, 0.8 Blk

Andrew Bogut    32.1 Min, 11.9 Pts, 8.6 Reb, 3.1 Ast, 2.4 TO, 0.8 Stl, 0.4 Blk

A deeper look shows that Webber has gotten his points on 4 more FG attempts and 1.5 fewer FT attempts and that in that sense Bogut has been more efficient, but it is fairly obvious that Webber’s not washed up when you consider the praise poured on Bogut.  The question remains whether Webber is willing to take a lesser role for a championship or if he’s looking for a place to play 30 minutes a night.  Despite averaging over 19 shots a game, I actually think that C.Webb would be willing to take a lot fewer shots if he’s able to drop 7-8 dimes a night, so (assuming that all the reports are true) will he do that in Detroit?

Maybe situation in Detroit is perfect for Webber.  Aside from Rip Hamilton each player is good enough and team-oriented enough to get by without the spotlight or a ton of attempts.  Rip gets 17 FGA, Billups 12, Tayshon 13 and Rasheed 11.  Outside of the core, there aren’t many shots taken.

For example, look at the Pistons frontcourt players:

Rasheed Wallace           34 Min, 11.0 FGA, 12.1 Pts, 8.5 Pts, 1.6 Ast, 1.3 TO, 0.7 Stl, 1.8 Blk

Antonio McDyess          21 Min, 5.6 FGA, 5.2 Pts, 5.7 Rebs, 0.9 Ast, 0.9 TO, 0.5 Stl, 0.5 Blk

Nazr Mohammed           20 Min, 5.5 FGA, 7.5 Pts, 5.6 Rebs, 0.2 Ast, 1.0 TO, 0.8 Stl, 1.1 Blk

Jason Maxiell                15 Min, 4.8 FGA, 6.6 Pts, 2.8 Rebs, 0.3 Ast, 0.8 TO, 0.5 Stl, 0.8 Blk

Dale Davis                     11 Min, 1.9 FGA, 1.9 Pts, 3.0 Rebs, 0.3 Ast, 0.3 TO, 0.2 Stl, 0.9 Blk

Rasheed is included, but the rest of the discussion will focus on the four guys Webber will be replacing.  These numbers tell me a few things. 1)  There isn’t a dominant player that Webber will be taking minutes from, which makes it easier for Webber to fit in, especially if McDyess or Davis gets moved. 2) These guys don’t get the ball unless they grab it off the glass (1.7/3.0 Assist-TO ratio and 1.7 assists in 67 minutes per game).  So how does Webber compare to these guys?  Summing up the other four and adjusting to 30.2 minutes of the four-headed monster gives a combined line to compare to Webber’s 2006-7 output:

Webber                         30.2 Min, 12.8 FGA, FG 38.7%, 11.0 Pts, 8.3 Reb, 3.4 Ast, 1.8 TO, 1.0 Stl, 0.8 Blk

4-headed Piston             30.2 Min, 8.1 FGA, FG 48.9%, 9.7 Pts, 7.8 Reb, 0.8 Ast, 1.4 TO, 0.9 Stl, 1.6 Blk

It seems that a few things are going to change with Webber in Detroit.  First, for Webber to be happy a few guys are going to have to give up a shot or two a game, most likely this can be managed by removing the ball even further from the other four and guys like Flip Murray without significantly affecting the core. Second, the ball is going to go through Webber more often than these other guys, which is a perfect scenario for Detroit because they have guys who can stick the J as all four of the core hit over 34% from 3 and they shoot 36% from 3 as a team.

How does this affect the core? Given Rasheed’s ability to accept his role and to affect the game regardless, he will benefit from having a partner in the high post as well as a guy who will find him when Rasheed’s man sags to the middle to help on Webber and cut off the back door cuts of Prince and Rip.  Rip benefits by getting the ball where he wants it from a guy not named Chauncy.  Chauncy benefits by getting an extra open look because he won’t be the only guy who can handle the ball in the half court.  Tayshon will continue to get his scraps and may even have a play run for him and his 44% 3-point shot.

With Webber in the lineup I’d expect significant improvement in spacing, passing and opportunities for everyone else.  That alone should be enough to put the Pistons over the hump in the East, making Webber’s choice to come home look even better.

Well, a few weeks ago I said the Kings could right this ship and get themselves back into the race thanks to their soft January schedule.  Since then they’ve been 3-4 with a few crushing losses.  Two of those losses in particular, OT losses to the Lakers and Portland came complete with last second shots (thanks Smush and Roy) that cost the Kings the win in regulation.   Add that to a 17-point, second-half lead blown to Cleveland last night and the Kings are in a rut.   They have 12 games left in January against a weak schedule, but 9 of those games are on the road (including two 4-game road trips).  In other words, this hasn’t worked out like I’d hoped.  Convert the OT losses to wins by taking back those two buckets and you’ve got a completely different story, but those losses could mean the difference between the playoffs and the lottery or between blowing up the team or not.

The silver lining is in the two superstars – Mike Bibby and Ron Artest.  In 4 games in January, Bibby is shooting over 51% from the field, 50% from 3 and scoring 28 points a game. Artest, in 4 games, has shot over 53%, 35% from 3, and dropped 22.5 points per contest.  Each has averaged over 40 minutes ( two OT games certainly help that ) and it seems that they are in the process of turning around tough starts.   At the same time, Kevin Martin has continued his ridiculous season, scoring 20 on over 50% from the field.  In the front court, Brad Miller, Kenny Thomas and Shareef Abdur-Rahim have all played serviceable ball, though with 70 PPG coming from the backcourt, they haven’t been scoring too much.  Even John Salmons has contributed in 30 minutes a game… so what’s happening?

As I said before, two late buckets have really changed the perception for this team.  Without them the Kings have a 4-game win streak and a little momentum heading into last night’s game to Cleveland and that confidence probably doesn’t cough up a 17-point lead.  The media would be writing about the success of the two bickering stars, the great play of the back court and the Kings would again be darlings.  But apparently this isn’t the season for that in Sacramento.  Each success is trampled by two failures.

I grew up loving Pete Rose.  He was pretty much untouchable as my biggest childhood hero until I sat down to watch some guy drop 63 points in the Garden against Larry and the Celtics in 1986 (I was 11).  The man was ridiculous with a 32 oz baseball bat and besides that, before his betting problems dragged him down, he was a very good manager (aside from playing himself a little too much at first base late in his career).  I’m not going to waste time with an ode to Pete and why he is unquestionably a hall of famer and without the gambling issue would have had among the highest vote totals of anyone on a first-year ballot.  What I am going to say is that one of my other favorite players – Mark McGwire (I grew up in Sacramento and loved anything in green and gold) – has officially ruined it for Rose.

For the last 20 years every December/January belonged to Pete Rose.  Every year there were countless articles on why or why not and in every article he was commended as among the greatest players of all time.  This outcast role made him a superhero in a way that a first-ballot HOF vote never could.  Robin Yount and George Brett were first-ballot guys, when was the last time someone mentioned them this time of year?  Pete Rose has become infinitely more famous without the Hall as his story has been regurgitated to each new generation of baseball fans.  Ask your 8-year old who Tony Perez is and see the confusion, but ask him who Pete Rose is and he’ll reel of a Wikipedia article.

Now the steroid era has come to Cooperstown (a wonderful town by the way, with or without the Hall).  All the articles, in cyberspace or in magazines, have been devoted to Mark McGwire, the same player who retired from baseball being considered among the top 5 first basemen of all time.  Since then he has done nothing wrong, nor has he even been officially accused of any wrong doing.  Sure he doesn’t want to talk about the past and has lived in hiding, but why?  He played by the rules of baseball at the time he was in the league.  He may have taken steroids, but who knows for sure who hasn’t.  I’ve become increasingly more skeptical of longevity as a steroid/HGH indicator because of the possibility for faster recovery, etc.  There have been a lot of guys, pitchers in particular, who’ve been playing this game at a very high level for a very long time.  How does the argument go when Roger Clemens (who’s name’s come up in rumors), Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and others come to the ballot?

There are no sure HOFers on the 2008 ballot.  The new names are Shawon Dunston, Travis Fryman, David Justice, Mike Morgan, Tim Raines and Randy Velarde of which only Raines has a snowball’s chance in hell.  That usually means one of the guys on the waiting list finally gets his call, a la Bruce Sutter, and it looks like that person might be Goose Gossage and Jim Rice may slide in.  In 2009, Rickey Henderson shows up. But hopefully before the next wave of “sure HOFers” get to the door we have some clarity on how to deal with steroids, or at least more information on who did and didn’t if that is going to be a basis for HOF evaluation given that it wasn’t against the rules.

My point is simple.  Pete’s 20 years in the spotlight are done.  He might as well be reinstated, slide in the back door to Cooperstown and be forgotten forever.  Now your 2-year old will probably never hear of Pete Rose, but will know plenty about Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro and Sammy Sosa.  By the way, if those guys are going to be shut out, I hope that list gets longer and other users don’t slide in because they didn’t hit 500 HRs.