Don't trade Artest!
Whoa… trade Ron Artest? Maybe the Kings should relax a little bit. The rumors are a straight-up swap Artest to LA for Corey Maggette, who has essentially an identical contract to Artest. Apparently Mike Bibby and RonRon can't make nice and given the 11-14 record the Maloofs are considering ending the Ron Artest Era within 1 year.
With Artest's potential to lose it and reduce his trade value, one could see this as a completion of the Peja trade and think parlaying Peja into a player like Maggette is a good thing, especially since Peja just had back surgery and Kevin Martin has turned out to be a fresher, higher-flying version of Peja 3:16 of yesteryear. However, I tend to think that Artest is a gifted player and that he completely changes the defensive face of a team. If someone's leaving I think it should be the other star.
Mike vs Ron
If we look a little into the numbers, it just doesn't make sense to give up on Ron just yet. I know I just ranted about getting AI for Bibby and that the Kings have nothing to play for so mixing it up is a good thing, but Bibby and Ron are very different types of players and I wouldn't have said that if it was AI for Artest.
I am fully aware that Bibby carried the Kings one step from the Promised Land a few years back with his clutch shooting. He was the backbone for what has been proven to be an otherwise backbone-less partnership with CWebb and Peja. However, when they inked that long-term deal I was pretty sure they would eventually regret it. At the time Bobby Jackson was the back up and was an energy boost whenever he hit the floor. I thought the Kings should sit on their wallets and not give Bibby the max because BoJax could easily carry 30 minutes a night and they could fill the other spot with a cheaper alternative… but that's a completely other discussion.
Sticking to Artest v Bibby, there are a few things that make Artest a much more valuable player in the longer term. First, Artest's under contract next year, Bibby can opt out after this season. Second, Artest is a year and a half younger than Bibby (to the day actually). Third, despite his shooting woes, Artest has listened to his critics and coach and is averaging over 2 more rebounds than his career average this season. Given his defense and steals (2.4), 7.2 boards a game should give him a strong argument for defensive player of the year. And finally, Artest's shooting has been bad, but not really that far off his career FG% of .415. Point being that if he's so valuable at .415, why is he of so little value at .389, especially getting to line and converting an extra time per game and grabbing a pair of extra boards. Bibby on the other hand is shooting nearly .100 points below his career average in both FGs and 3FGs and, despite almost 2 extra FTs a game, he is otherwise giving you what he's always given you in terms of rebounds, assists and lackadaisical defense.
Think about the schedule
Another anecdote – if Bibby and Ron can just get along – is that the Kings have faced a hellish schedule in December. They were 8-5 in November and were the talk of the league, then they started December by losing five straight to San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, Orlando and Miami (hey, they're still the champs and the loss was in OT). They've also lost to Golden State (.500) and Washington (.556), but their other losses were to Phoenix and Dallas again and they beat Utah and Denver (AI's debut) on the road so they've beaten some good teams. Yeah, but they need to beat the best teams right? Well, we're talking about the four of the five best teams in the league (nod to the Pistons, not the Jazz) and the reigning champions. The Kings on their best days are not among the four best teams in the league. In summary, the 3-9 December looks worse than it is when you consider that the Kings have played two teams with less than a .500 record and one of those teams won the championship last year.
We'll see how my theory holds up when the Kings face Philly, the Clippers, Golden State to wrap up December and spend January with the Pistons, Cavs, Mavs and the damaged Lakers and Rockets as the only teams above .500 on their 16-game January schedule.
So Maloof brothers, I stress patience, and if you're gonna do a deal, here's some help.
Bibby trade options (if my idea doesn't work)
By the time they hit a back-to-back with the Sonics February 10-11 the Kings should have a pretty good idea of what type of team they have and be prepared to ship Bibby to a point-guard hungry team before the deadline for a young player/draft pick and an expiring contract. Possible destinations might be Cleveland, Indiana or Miami if they believe they can make a run at the Eastern Conference with a little help at PG. Looking into the rosters, it seems that only James Posey of the Heat has an expiring contract of any reasonable size, so I'd expect a third team not in the race but with some expiring deals (Portland-Jamal Magloire, Seattle-Danny Fortson, Memphis-Eddie Jones, Bucks-Ruben Patterson) to get involved if Bibby's $12.5 million are going anywhere.
Using ESPN's trade machine I worked out a Bibby to Indiana deal via Memphis. While a deal could be done Bibby for Eddie Jones straight up, if Memphis is just brokering, they could parlay Jones into Stephen Jackson and Jamal Tinsley with Indiana. My favorite deal would be Bibby and John Salmons(' shitty contract) to Indiana, Eddie Jones, Sarunas Jasikevicious and potentially a draft pick (I love this guy!) to the Kings and Stephen Jackson and Jamal Tinsley to Memphis (the deal also works without Salmons and Saras, but the Kings will need a PG in return). This deal would free the Kings of almost $20 million in cap space in 2007-8 (not to mention the $10 million that comes off anyway). It also gives them a poor man's Bibby in Saras who is simply the best European point guard out there and needs a place to play. Memphis obviously takes a risk with Jackson (attitude) and Tinsley (every bone in his body), but that team should have learned while it was without Pau that it needs scoring in the worst way. Indiana would improve the attitude in the locker room, get some future cap flexibility, erase the competition between Tinsley and Saras and get a clutch PG for a playoff run in the East. Memphis would probably ask someone to fix the Stromile Swift situation and Sacramento could toss in Corliss or Indiana could chip in rebounding machine Jeff Foster, a nice fit next to Pau, to accommodate that request though neither team really needs Swift.
Christmas in Denver?
So the Nuggets got AI. Not a good day for Kings and T-Wolves fans, but the Nuggets have to be pretty happy, but I'm afraid the happiness may be short-lived. The Nuggets still play in the Western Conference and there are three monsters in the closet - Mavs, Spurs, Suns - two of which are waiting for their own turn at glory and the other is so used to glory that they won't let go without a fight. So what happens with AI? Who's left out when AI takes his share? Let's see...
For the first 10-15 games, AI will get his as Smith and Melo serve suspensions, but what about the rest of the season. The Nuggets average 109 points a game through 23 games... that's a lot of points. Now, subtract Andre Miller's 36 minutes, 10 shots, 13 points, 9 assists and 3 TOs and try to replace them with a guy that's gone a career with 42 minutes, 23 shots, 28 points, 6 assists and 4 TOs. You realize quickly that something has to give for "career average" AI to fit into the hole AM is leaving. (Fitting "2006-7" AI will prove even more difficult.)
Where to get 6 minutes... the guess is that this is the easy part. Earl Boykins loses most of the minutes as he was getting 24 already. I could also see Earl losing minutes to better compliments to AI, but we'll ignore that for now.
How about 13 shots, not to mention 6 extra free throws (3 more shot attempts)? There's an interesting twist when it comes to shots because one might assume that AI's ready to be humble and give up his shots. However, given that he will carry the load for 10-15 games before the team's rightful leader returns, he might forget to be humble by late January after averaging 35 points a night in the higher-paced Western Conference and leading the league in scoring. Trying to dissect the shots a bit further, Boykins loses again as he usually guns when he's in the game (10 shots in 23 minutes), figure he loses 3. After that there are only Melo, JR and Camby with 10 or more shots and I don't think Camby or Nene loses any shots because they'll pick up for the loss of Joe Smith (14 minutes, 4 shots). That means that 13 shots need to be taken away from the combination of JR (12 shots today), Melo (24), everyone else (except JR, Melo, Camby, Nene, lil' Earl and the departed AM and Joe Smith) (17) or a reduction for AI. My guess is it's 4 for JR, 3 for Melo, 3 for Boykins, 3 for the scrubs and 3 for AI. That generally means each guy will average as many fewer points.
What about the 3 lost assists, my guess is AI will carry that load or one or two will simply disappear as AI takes his guy off the dribble more than AM. 6 assists is his career average, but he's had between 7 and 8 the last three years.
So how is this team better with AI than AM? Well, if we assume AI averages 25 (12 more than AM, but AI's lowest since his 2nd season) and 8, Melo's reduced to 29 (-3), JR drops to 13 (-4), Boykins to 9 (-3) and the rest drop 3 more points, the Nuggets average 108 points, or one fewer. This is due to AM's higher efficiency scoring (47%). Add in AI's extra turnover per game and it could be worse.
Another factor has to do with swagger. Sure the team gets some swagger with AI, but Melo's just lost his scoring title to Kobe and JR's gone from a formidable second scorer at 17 points and climbing to a run-of-the-mill 13-point three-point specialist. Even AI's lost some mojo if he's only averaging 25.
One solution is for George Karl to turn it up a notch. Get an extra 3-5 shots a game to split with his stars. This might happen naturally as AI likes to gamble and may give up a few quick ones on the other end. The other is to shorten the bench and essentially end the season for guys like DerMarr Johnson (8 min, 3 shots) and Yakhouba Diawara (20 min, 5 shots) or to trade Boykins (24 min, 10 shots) for less of a gunner because he's essentially useless if he can't be paired with AI for 42 minutes.
The final question is how good is a team with Camby, Nene, Melo, JR and AI in a playoff series? Dirk and Marion seem to be mismatches, but Melo and AI would also be tough for Dallas or Phoenix to hold. Denver could play small ball with Boykins, Diawara or Johnson against the Suns, but the Suns would probably outmatch them. San Antonio plays good D, but either Anthony or Iverson should see a few extra seconds of daylight from what they would have otherwise, and they should be able to capitalize on that.
The prediction? The Nuggets are 14-9 today and would have to feel lucky to play 7-8 without Melo and JR Smith. That leaves them 21-17 when we finally get to see the team as one unit. If we assume this is January 22 they have a few powder puffs before the All-Star Game and will cause a stir by winning 10 of their first 13 as a full squad. Now at 31-20 they probably continue at a .600 pace for the rest of the year and end at 49-50 wins. That would be 5 better than last season and the same as two years ago when they had that huge run once George Karl arrived. Given the long suspensions, that's an outstanding record actually. The franchise hasn't seen 50 wins since 1988, so the city should be buzzing. Given the dominance in the West this year, 50 wins should put them at the sixth seed (ie, right where they are today) where they'll likely face one of the big 3 already in the first round... welcome to the Western Conference Allen. If they beat any of those teams it would have to be considered a major upset, but to Denver it will feel like a major disappointment after giving up both first-round draft picks to lose in the first round of the playoffs.
So Nugget fans, enjoy the show until early May!
AI
Do this deal please... The Kings are tumbling and really have nothing to lose by sending Bibby, Douby and Kenny Thomas to Philly for AI. While they're at it, send back John Salmons and his shitty contract. My guess is the Sixers want an expiring contract, so maybe Corliss gets in there somehow. The issue being that Bibby can opt out at year end and that would leave Philly with nothing for AI. So, if AI and Ron Ron are going to be the anti-thesis of Divac and Peja in Sactown, Bibby's going to have to give up that option. Given the floating wood in the Atlantic the Sixers can still squeeze into the playoff picture with a few back-to-backs and Bibby and Webber were a decent, albeit slow and trodding, duo.
I think AI would be a nice fit in Sac because no one else really demands the ball. Martin will score quietly, Ron can bang it in the post for a few buckets when he's not loving his 3 ball and Reef and Miller have never been too vocal about getting the rock. Don't think it gets the Kings to the playoffs by default, but they aren't going now anyway and the Maloofs have already made a successful bold move for Artest and realize that AI will mean a ton of pictures of their front-row sitting mugs on national TV and jersey sales if nothing else. The problems in the locker room? Media babble. AI's been a productive player in the league for 11 years and realizes better than most that the NBA is a business and you don't always have to have BBQs with your coworkers.
I haven't heard another deal that is better for Philly than getting Bibby and some cap flexibility. The T-wolves have nothing but shit on their roster and I can't see the purpose of loading up on mediocrity by making a trade for Theo Ratliff and a few pups from Boston. Maybe the Knicks will trade for AI and Webber just to load up on contracts.
Any chance David Stern throws the Kings a bone in an AI deal by letting the Kings move into the Eastern conference?
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The Cubs have spent the GDP of Ghana and the Congo on players this offseason. For some reason this isn't bothering me like it would if the Yankees were doing it. Go Cubbies!
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Man Detroit sucks, can't the Lions just beat someone so that I'll know that the Raiders have the #1 next year? Note to Big Al... Trade the pick! Get a ton of picks in exchange for "the Brady Quinn pick" and DON'T use them on a safety this year.
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Adam Morrison has made 1 FG in each of his last four games. I didn't realize that NBA players could be as streaky as he has been this year. This is the equivalent of an 0-33 slump in baseball or something. I mean, it's not like the guy's raking down 10 boards a night or shelling out 5 dimes... the guy is paid to knock down J's and he is ICE COLD. The only thing making Morrison look good right now is JJ Redick.
