Big 3 Sports

Don't trade Artest!

Whoa… trade Ron Artest? Maybe the Kings should relax a little bit. The rumors are a straight-up swap Artest to LA for Corey Maggette, who has essentially an identical contract to Artest. Apparently Mike Bibby and RonRon can't make nice and given the 11-14 record the Maloofs are considering ending the Ron Artest Era within 1 year.

With Artest's potential to lose it and reduce his trade value, one could see this as a completion of the Peja trade and think parlaying Peja into a player like Maggette is a good thing, especially since Peja just had back surgery and Kevin Martin has turned out to be a fresher, higher-flying version of Peja 3:16 of yesteryear. However, I tend to think that Artest is a gifted player and that he completely changes the defensive face of a team. If someone's leaving I think it should be the other star.

Mike vs Ron

If we look a little into the numbers, it just doesn't make sense to give up on Ron just yet. I know I just ranted about getting AI for Bibby and that the Kings have nothing to play for so mixing it up is a good thing, but Bibby and Ron are very different types of players and I wouldn't have said that if it was AI for Artest.

I am fully aware that Bibby carried the Kings one step from the Promised Land a few years back with his clutch shooting. He was the backbone for what has been proven to be an otherwise backbone-less partnership with CWebb and Peja. However, when they inked that long-term deal I was pretty sure they would eventually regret it. At the time Bobby Jackson was the back up and was an energy boost whenever he hit the floor. I thought the Kings should sit on their wallets and not give Bibby the max because BoJax could easily carry 30 minutes a night and they could fill the other spot with a cheaper alternative… but that's a completely other discussion.

Sticking to Artest v Bibby, there are a few things that make Artest a much more valuable player in the longer term. First, Artest's under contract next year, Bibby can opt out after this season. Second, Artest is a year and a half younger than Bibby (to the day actually). Third, despite his shooting woes, Artest has listened to his critics and coach and is averaging over 2 more rebounds than his career average this season. Given his defense and steals (2.4), 7.2 boards a game should give him a strong argument for defensive player of the year. And finally, Artest's shooting has been bad, but not really that far off his career FG% of .415. Point being that if he's so valuable at .415, why is he of so little value at .389, especially getting to line and converting an extra time per game and grabbing a pair of extra boards. Bibby on the other hand is shooting nearly .100 points below his career average in both FGs and 3FGs and, despite almost 2 extra FTs a game, he is otherwise giving you what he's always given you in terms of rebounds, assists and lackadaisical defense.

Think about the schedule

Another anecdote – if Bibby and Ron can just get along – is that the Kings have faced a hellish schedule in December. They were 8-5 in November and were the talk of the league, then they started December by losing five straight to San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, Orlando and Miami (hey, they're still the champs and the loss was in OT). They've also lost to Golden State (.500) and Washington (.556), but their other losses were to Phoenix and Dallas again and they beat Utah and Denver (AI's debut) on the road so they've beaten some good teams. Yeah, but they need to beat the best teams right? Well, we're talking about the four of the five best teams in the league (nod to the Pistons, not the Jazz) and the reigning champions. The Kings on their best days are not among the four best teams in the league. In summary, the 3-9 December looks worse than it is when you consider that the Kings have played two teams with less than a .500 record and one of those teams won the championship last year.

We'll see how my theory holds up when the Kings face Philly, the Clippers, Golden State to wrap up December and spend January with the Pistons, Cavs, Mavs and the damaged Lakers and Rockets as the only teams above .500 on their 16-game January schedule.

So Maloof brothers, I stress patience, and if you're gonna do a deal, here's some help.

Bibby trade options (if my idea doesn't work)

By the time they hit a back-to-back with the Sonics February 10-11 the Kings should have a pretty good idea of what type of team they have and be prepared to ship Bibby to a point-guard hungry team before the deadline for a young player/draft pick and an expiring contract. Possible destinations might be Cleveland, Indiana or Miami if they believe they can make a run at the Eastern Conference with a little help at PG. Looking into the rosters, it seems that only James Posey of the Heat has an expiring contract of any reasonable size, so I'd expect a third team not in the race but with some expiring deals (Portland-Jamal Magloire, Seattle-Danny Fortson, Memphis-Eddie Jones, Bucks-Ruben Patterson) to get involved if Bibby's $12.5 million are going anywhere.

Using ESPN's trade machine I worked out a Bibby to Indiana deal via Memphis. While a deal could be done Bibby for Eddie Jones straight up, if Memphis is just brokering, they could parlay Jones into Stephen Jackson and Jamal Tinsley with Indiana. My favorite deal would be Bibby and John Salmons(' shitty contract) to Indiana, Eddie Jones, Sarunas Jasikevicious and potentially a draft pick (I love this guy!) to the Kings and Stephen Jackson and Jamal Tinsley to Memphis (the deal also works without Salmons and Saras, but the Kings will need a PG in return). This deal would free the Kings of almost $20 million in cap space in 2007-8 (not to mention the $10 million that comes off anyway). It also gives them a poor man's Bibby in Saras who is simply the best European point guard out there and needs a place to play. Memphis obviously takes a risk with Jackson (attitude) and Tinsley (every bone in his body), but that team should have learned while it was without Pau that it needs scoring in the worst way. Indiana would improve the attitude in the locker room, get some future cap flexibility, erase the competition between Tinsley and Saras and get a clutch PG for a playoff run in the East. Memphis would probably ask someone to fix the Stromile Swift situation and Sacramento could toss in Corliss or Indiana could chip in rebounding machine Jeff Foster, a nice fit next to Pau, to accommodate that request though neither team really needs Swift.

posted by Big 3 Freak @ 8:09 AM