Big 3 Sports

Christmas in Denver?

So the Nuggets got AI. Not a good day for Kings and T-Wolves fans, but the Nuggets have to be pretty happy, but I'm afraid the happiness may be short-lived. The Nuggets still play in the Western Conference and there are three monsters in the closet - Mavs, Spurs, Suns - two of which are waiting for their own turn at glory and the other is so used to glory that they won't let go without a fight. So what happens with AI? Who's left out when AI takes his share? Let's see...

For the first 10-15 games, AI will get his as Smith and Melo serve suspensions, but what about the rest of the season. The Nuggets average 109 points a game through 23 games... that's a lot of points. Now, subtract Andre Miller's 36 minutes, 10 shots, 13 points, 9 assists and 3 TOs and try to replace them with a guy that's gone a career with 42 minutes, 23 shots, 28 points, 6 assists and 4 TOs. You realize quickly that something has to give for "career average" AI to fit into the hole AM is leaving. (Fitting "2006-7" AI will prove even more difficult.)

Where to get 6 minutes... the guess is that this is the easy part. Earl Boykins loses most of the minutes as he was getting 24 already. I could also see Earl losing minutes to better compliments to AI, but we'll ignore that for now.

How about 13 shots, not to mention 6 extra free throws (3 more shot attempts)? There's an interesting twist when it comes to shots because one might assume that AI's ready to be humble and give up his shots. However, given that he will carry the load for 10-15 games before the team's rightful leader returns, he might forget to be humble by late January after averaging 35 points a night in the higher-paced Western Conference and leading the league in scoring. Trying to dissect the shots a bit further, Boykins loses again as he usually guns when he's in the game (10 shots in 23 minutes), figure he loses 3. After that there are only Melo, JR and Camby with 10 or more shots and I don't think Camby or Nene loses any shots because they'll pick up for the loss of Joe Smith (14 minutes, 4 shots). That means that 13 shots need to be taken away from the combination of JR (12 shots today), Melo (24), everyone else (except JR, Melo, Camby, Nene, lil' Earl and the departed AM and Joe Smith) (17) or a reduction for AI. My guess is it's 4 for JR, 3 for Melo, 3 for Boykins, 3 for the scrubs and 3 for AI. That generally means each guy will average as many fewer points.

What about the 3 lost assists, my guess is AI will carry that load or one or two will simply disappear as AI takes his guy off the dribble more than AM. 6 assists is his career average, but he's had between 7 and 8 the last three years.

So how is this team better with AI than AM? Well, if we assume AI averages 25 (12 more than AM, but AI's lowest since his 2nd season) and 8, Melo's reduced to 29 (-3), JR drops to 13 (-4), Boykins to 9 (-3) and the rest drop 3 more points, the Nuggets average 108 points, or one fewer. This is due to AM's higher efficiency scoring (47%). Add in AI's extra turnover per game and it could be worse.

Another factor has to do with swagger. Sure the team gets some swagger with AI, but Melo's just lost his scoring title to Kobe and JR's gone from a formidable second scorer at 17 points and climbing to a run-of-the-mill 13-point three-point specialist. Even AI's lost some mojo if he's only averaging 25.

One solution is for George Karl to turn it up a notch. Get an extra 3-5 shots a game to split with his stars. This might happen naturally as AI likes to gamble and may give up a few quick ones on the other end. The other is to shorten the bench and essentially end the season for guys like DerMarr Johnson (8 min, 3 shots) and Yakhouba Diawara (20 min, 5 shots) or to trade Boykins (24 min, 10 shots) for less of a gunner because he's essentially useless if he can't be paired with AI for 42 minutes.

The final question is how good is a team with Camby, Nene, Melo, JR and AI in a playoff series? Dirk and Marion seem to be mismatches, but Melo and AI would also be tough for Dallas or Phoenix to hold. Denver could play small ball with Boykins, Diawara or Johnson against the Suns, but the Suns would probably outmatch them. San Antonio plays good D, but either Anthony or Iverson should see a few extra seconds of daylight from what they would have otherwise, and they should be able to capitalize on that.

The prediction? The Nuggets are 14-9 today and would have to feel lucky to play 7-8 without Melo and JR Smith. That leaves them 21-17 when we finally get to see the team as one unit. If we assume this is January 22 they have a few powder puffs before the All-Star Game and will cause a stir by winning 10 of their first 13 as a full squad. Now at 31-20 they probably continue at a .600 pace for the rest of the year and end at 49-50 wins. That would be 5 better than last season and the same as two years ago when they had that huge run once George Karl arrived. Given the long suspensions, that's an outstanding record actually. The franchise hasn't seen 50 wins since 1988, so the city should be buzzing. Given the dominance in the West this year, 50 wins should put them at the sixth seed (ie, right where they are today) where they'll likely face one of the big 3 already in the first round... welcome to the Western Conference Allen. If they beat any of those teams it would have to be considered a major upset, but to Denver it will feel like a major disappointment after giving up both first-round draft picks to lose in the first round of the playoffs.

So Nugget fans, enjoy the show until early May!

posted by Big 3 Freak @ 7:25 PM